Fed Minutes: January taper right first step, benefits likely waning

Investing.com - U.S. monetary authorities felt the decision to cut the Federal Reserve's monthly bond-purchasing program to USD75 billion from USD85 billion was a prudent first step in a gradual process of letting the economy stand on its own two feet without monetary support, the Fed's December policy meeting minutes read.

At its Dec. 17-18 policy meeting, the Fed voted to trim its monthly asset purchasing program by USD10 billion but stressed benchmark interest rates will stay at 0.00-0.25% until the unemployment rates approaches 6.5% or even dips below that mark, depending on the health of the economy in the context of price stability.

Fiscal issues have been clearing up, while the labor market and broader economy had improved to the point that the time was right to begin dismantling the bond-purchasing program though in a cautious manner, most Fed members concluded at the policy meeting.

"Many members judged that the Committee should proceed cautiously in taking its first action to reduce the pace of asset purchases and should indicate that further reductions would be undertaken in measured steps. Members also stressed the need to underscore that the pace of asset purchases was not on a preset course and would remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the efficacy and costs of purchases," the minutes read.

One committee member felt tapering was a little premature, while some wanted to knock the unemployment threshold down to 6% from 6.5% provided inflation rates remain in target.
"However, most members wanted to make no change to the threshold and instead preferred to provide qualitative guidance to clarify that a range of labor market indicators would be used when assessing the appropriate stance of policy once the threshold had been crossed," the minutes read.

The Fed is currently buying USD75 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month to prop up the economy, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing that drives down long-term interest rates to spur recovery.

Quantitative easing tends to make asset classes like stocks more attractive with the aim of encouraging more investment and hiring, while the safe-haven dollar weakens as a side effect.

Some monetary authorities expressed the need to continue scaling back asset purchases albeit in a cautious manner on concerns that the benefits of the program may be waning.

"A majority of participants judged that the marginal efficacy of purchases was likely declining as purchases continue, although some noted the difficulty inherent in making such an assessment. A couple of participants thought that the marginal efficacy of the program was not declining, as evidenced by the substantial effects in financial markets in recent months of news about the likely path of purchases," the minutes read.

Most agreed the program has been a success up to now.

"Many commented that progress to date had been meaningful, and some expressed the view that the criterion of substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market was likely to be met in the coming year if the economy evolved as expected," the minutes read.

Still, expect the Fed to go slow with any decision to trim asset purchases even further.

"Several participants stressed that the unemployment rate remained elevated, that a range of other indicators had shown less progress toward levels consistent with a full recovery in the labor market, and that the projected pickup in economic growth was not assured."