Brazil jobless rate drops to 8.3% but economists see recovery fading
Reuters
Published Nov 30, 2022 08:21AM ET
Updated Nov 30, 2022 10:18AM ET
SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil's jobless rate fell to 8.3% in the three months through October, statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday, below market expectations as the key indicator continues to hover around seven-year lows.
Even so, the fresh drop was not enough to refrain economists from seeing softening labor conditions ahead on a tight financial situation and as the ongoing recovery also factors in seasonal elements.
The data represented the lowest unemployment level in Latin America's largest economy since July 2015 and the lowest for the August-October period in eight years, IBGE said.
The number of employed people, it added, rose to 99.7 million, a new record for the series that started in 2012.
"This trend has been under way since the second half of 2021, and as we approach the final months of the year - a period in which there is historically an increase in job creation - it continues," research manager Adriana Beringuy said in a report.
The median forecast in a Reuters poll had projected an unemployment rate of 8.5%, after it hit 8.7% in the rolling quarter through September.
Brazil's government has been betting on an improving labor market to drive economic growth in 2022, with Economy Minister Paulo Guedes saying he expected the jobless rate to drop to 8% before the year ends.
Economists, however, are seeing mounting evidence of slowing momentum.
"For the second month in a row, the lower unemployment rate was solely a result of a lower participation rate," economists at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) said, referring to the labor force divided by total working-age population.
They added that evidence was increasingly pointing to softening conditions since the end of the third quarter.
Andres Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, praised the latest data as a good start to the fourth quarter on a relatively healthy economy and the lagged impact from fiscal support, but cautioned that recent surveys suggested a fading recovery.
"Tight financial conditions, increased policy uncertainty, and deteriorating external fundamentals point to a modest increase in the unemployment rate during the first half of next year," he said.
Get The News You Want
Written By: Reuters
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.