VeChain Recap Analysis: (VEN/BTC) Falls Below Its Critical Area. A Monthly Recap Of VEN’s Performance

In this technical analysis we will be reviewing VeChain’s performance over the course of this month against the earlier analysis prediction written on May 4th, which can be found here:

https://cryptovest.com/news/vechain-technical-analysis-venbtc-enters-critical-area-could-be-make-or-break-for-ven/

This month has been a rollercoaster for Bitcoin, starting the month off surging towards $10,000, only to end up tanking below critical support areas throughout the following weeks. In turn, the bearish BTC market caused widespread fear and doubt across the rest of the crypto market, with the global market cap tumbling by as much as $136billion so far, from its peak monthly figure.

This came at a costly time for VeChain, as it was forecasted to be heading towards a key turning point in its price activity. Let’s compare the two charts, from then and now, to see what effect BTC had on VEN and what we should expect going into the next month.

Looking at the two charts you can see a number of things that tracked well along the predicted trajectory:

1. The bull run we saw in the last few candles of the first chart, returned to the resisting trend line for a second time before correcting back to the 0.382 fib support area.
2. During the next strong uptrend movement, support drove VEN towards 60,000 Sats (first white arrow) but fell short of retesting the 0.236 fib level.
3. The price action continued to follow the white arrows, and subsequently corrected to the rebounding support area for a 2nd time.

It was at this time that VEN had entered into a critical area, with a fork in the road ahead.

If BTC would’ve broken through $10,000 earlier this month, then it is very likely we would’ve seen the bullish continuation predicted in the charts above. However, it was unfortunate that Bitcoin suffered such heavy bearish losses over the last 2 weeks, which subsequently tipped the scales against VEN’s bullish targets.

Looking at the most recent chart we can see that VEN has now slipped outside of the uptrending dotted support area, coupled with a ‘Death Cross’ between the 50 EMA (blue) and the 200 EMA (red). While this is a strong bearish indication over the 3hr candles, looking at the current activity more closely, under 30min candles, we can see momentum starting to pick back up in the short-term.

MACD indicator is showing both moving averages return to the signal line from beneath, which tells us bullish momentum is starting to gather behind the asset.

RSI is also uptrending sharply towards the centre of the channel, which further supports the positive MACD indication.

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The price action is starting to uptrend through the kumo cloud on the Ichimoku indicator, with a bullish T/K-Sen crossover.

From this we can assume that, at least for now, bullish traders are starting to recover some of the losses dealt earlier this morning, however we will want to see a bullish convergence between the 50/ 200 EMA before anticipating a reversal.

In summary, I think we should expect the sloping dotted trend line to act as a strong resisting level during this next wave of rallying support, followed by a bearish continuation once this resistance is unsuccessfully breached.

We should expect the first support target for the asset to sit at 46,000 Sats, where the price action has already rested along 3 times during yesterday’s activity.

From there, it’s likely that if BTC continues to hover around $7000 then we should expect to see VEN fall further to the lower 0.5 fib level at 41,670 Sats, before rebounding.