Hurricane Florence Weakens, But Will Still Thrash the Carolinas

(Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Florence weakened on its course to the U.S. East Coast, but is still big enough to deliver a rainy punch and threaten a huge swath of the Carolinas coastline.

The storm’s strength dropped to a Category 2, meaning it’s now classified as simply a hurricane rather than a major one. Still, strong winds are radiating off Florence’s center for 195 miles, and it’s forecast to deliver as much as 30 inches (76 centimeters) of rain. It also has the potential to trigger catastrophic flooding and is expected to drive a 13-foot storm surge to resort towns that have been largely evacuated.

Florence is currently 325 miles (523 kilometers) east-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with top winds of 110 miles per hour, according to an advisory from the National Hurricane Center at 11 p.m. New York time. It will probably make landfall in about 36 hours in southern North Carolina, after which it will move slowly south-westward before turning to the north.

“My message is clear: disaster is at the doorstep,” North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper said Wednesday. Because the storm is expected to shift to the south, more of the region will be exposed to the brunt of its force.

“We are on the wrong side of this storm, where most of the damage is done,” Cooper said later in the day. “The rain will last for days.”

Duke Energy Corp (NYSE:DUK). warned that as many as 3 million residents, 75 percent of its total customer base, may lose power in North and South Carolina.

“While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size,” the NHC said in a forecast discussion on its website. “This evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more intense, but smaller, hurricane.” The threat of rainfall has also not diminished, and the impact will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center of the storm moves, according to the center.

Florence has already cost $1 billion in economic losses, and the storm will probably cause $10 billion to $20 billion in damage, depending on how long the storm sits on the coast, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research in Savannah, Georgia.

“If Florence comes inland fast, the price won’t be as high,” he said Wednesday.

Five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 miles-per-hour or more, have come ashore in North Carolina, Phil Klotzbach, hurricane researcher at Colorado State University said in a tweet. The last was Fran in 1996, which hit as a Category 3, according to National Hurricane Center records.

Other storm developments:

• Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued emergency declarations for all 159 counties in his state as the path of the storm changed.
• President Donald Trump said the storm will be “one of the biggest to ever hit the East Coast,” at the White House Wednesday, and urged people to comply with evacuation orders.
• Vice President Mike Pence canceled a trip to Georgia because of the hurricane and would "monitor the federal response" from Washington, his press secretary said on Twitter.
• Forecasters also watching Hurricane Helene, which is expected to lose strength in the next few days, and Tropical Storm Isaac, which is passing through the Caribbean.
• With four named storms in the Atlantic, forecasters are watching one more potential system that has high odds of becoming a tropical system, for a record five storms.

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As many as 1 million people have been asked to evacuate North Carolina. More than 300,000 people have already evacuated South Carolina, and that total may reach 1 million, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster said at a Wednesday briefing.

“You need to leave now,” he said. “There’s going to be a lot of heavy rain with this hurricane, we know that.”