Jefferies downgrades Nutrien stock rating to Hold on long-term concerns
Investing.com
Published Jul 11, 2025 02:35AM ET
Investing.com - Jefferies downgraded Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) from Buy to Hold on Friday, while raising its price target to $66.00 from $63.00. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week high of $65.08, has delivered an impressive 38.66% return year-to-date. According to InvestingPro data, the company commands a market capitalization of $29.59 billion and offers a dividend yield of 3.59%.
The research firm acknowledged that Nutrien has benefited year-to-date from multiple disruptions in fertilizer supply, which has positively impacted the company's performance.
Despite this favorable short-term outlook, Jefferies believes the positive earnings momentum appears already discounted in the stock price, with consensus revisions likely to peak by mid-2026.
Looking further ahead to 2027, Jefferies expects market focus to shift toward supply shocks for nitrogen and potash, along with margin pressure for nitrogen due to the LNG glut and data center developments.
The firm also cited potential longer-term concerns, noting that once the EU approves genetically engineered crops, input efficiency could emerge as a new investor theme that might drive a 50-100 basis points ($6-$12 per share) derating of the stock.
In other recent news, Nutrien Ltd. reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.11 compared to the consensus estimate of $0.36. Revenue also missed the mark, coming in at $5.1 billion against the expected $5.2 billion. Despite strong potash sales volumes and increased ammonia operating rates, Nutrien's adjusted EBITDA declined 19% year-over-year to $852 million, largely due to lower potash prices in North America and weaker retail earnings. In response to the earnings report, RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Nutrien shares to $65, citing strong fundamentals and confidence in the company's operational execution. Meanwhile, BofA Securities increased its price target to $63, maintaining a Buy rating and highlighting the rise in potash prices and expected robust demand in the US and Brazil. However, Raymond James downgraded Nutrien from Outperform to Market Perform, citing significant share price gains and concerns over the sustainability of its recent performance. Despite the mixed analyst outlooks, Nutrien remains committed to its full-year 2025 guidance, anticipating retail adjusted EBITDA between $1.65 billion and $1.85 billion and potash sales volumes of 13.6 million to 14.4 million tonnes.
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