Yen Hits New 2013 Low
Jason Rotman | Mar 08, 2013 11:20AM ET
last month and the jobless rate dropped to 7.7%. The MAR13 emini SP 500 made a new high for the year as it popped to 1553.75 on the data release, then retraced a bit. This market is still in positive territory this morning, trading up two points as of this writing. We believe the only reason that this market is not rallying more today is that this upside surprise was potentially “priced in” this week with the strong ADP jobs # on Wednesday and the good jobless claims # yesterday.
We would not be surprised to see a rally into the close because the data coming out has been so good, focused on housing and jobs.
The JUN13 U.S. 30-yr. bond is on its fifth down day in a row, trading down almost as full point to 141. We believe that the U.S. bond futures market, focused on the 10′s and 30′s have potential to continue their bearish trading activity, especially due to recent positive data on jobs growth. The famous bond phrase is “don’t fight the fed” so it can be tough feeling confident shorting bonds when the the Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen is indicating a continuation of QE policies, but at the same time if we keep seeing good jobs growth as well as new home construction and sales, we believe the bond market can still go down quite a bit. Our key target for the 10-yr. note this year is 2.4% yield.
We are seeing big developments continue in the currency markets. The U.S. dollar looks strong, and most of its foreign counterparts look weak. The Euro got slammed today and is back below 1.30, while the Swiss Franc is also down big, hitting levels below 1.05. We believe this trend of Dollar strength is not over.
We focus more on the Japanese Yen today. The Yen, after a big pop to 1.10 recently, is back down today and actually at new lows for 2013. Our two major resistance points are 1.05 and 1.10 and our first key support/target level is 1.01. We believe picking bottoms in this market is very dangerous.
Jason Rotman is President of Lido Isle Advisors, and Managed Futures & Options investment firm in Newport Beach, CA. Mr. Rotman has been featured on Bloomberg TV as well as Marketwatch.com.
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