WTI: Crude Could Turn Too Rude, Despite Bullish Sentiments
Satendra Singh | Mar 05, 2022 09:43PM ET
WTI crude oil looks ready to test new highs amid growing uncertainty around increasing storage phobia that is mushrooming due to fear of supply disruption. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has shifted the global focus of treating energy as a tool with which to paralyze the economy of any nation by an oil-producing country.
A sudden surge in WTI crude oil and natural gas prices in the last seven trading sessions, soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, indicates the beginning of an uptrend. WTI crude oil futures hit a new high at $116.50, closing last week at $112.11.
Undoubtedly, this surge has already indicated a sudden shift in trading sentiments. NATO and western countries have already made it clear that they did not want to stretch this conflict into a world war, trying to avoid worldwide mass destruction.
However, this fear-borne buying spree in the energy sector seems to be reaching a selloff point shortly. Undoubtedly, the whole world has seen a sudden spike in inflation, which could be the next immediate challenge as people race to stockpile enough food in order to avoid war contingencies in case of any unfortunate situation.
Undoubtedly, crude is also a basic necessity of the day, but refilling your car takes a back seat when it comes to your stomach. Russians are bracing for an uncertain future of spiraling inflation, economic hardship, and an even sharper squeeze on imported goods.
No doubt that the Russian ruble has lost a third of its value during this week due to unprecedented Western sanctions imposed upon Russia for invading Ukraine. The moves froze much of the central bank's $640 billion in reserves and barred several banks from the global payments system SWIFT, leaving the ruble in free-fall.
On Saturday, President Vladimir Putin said that Western sanctions on Russia were akin to a declaration of war and warned that any attempt to impose a no-fly zone in Ukraine would lead to catastrophic consequences for the world. Putin reiterated that he aimed to defend Russian- speaking communities through the "demilitarization and de-Nazification" of the country so that Russia's former Soviet neighbor would became neutral and no longer a threat to Russia.
Ukraine and Western countries have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for the invasion he launched on Feb. 24 and have imposed a range of sanctions to isolate Moscow. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has set in motion a broader disruption of global energy markets, which can only be exacerbated by the capture of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.
Oil prices edged lower, handing back early gains following the news of the nuclear plant attack, which makes it likelier that Europe and the U.S. will close the loophole in its current sanctions package that allows payment for energy supplies to continue uninterrupted. Russia is the world's biggest energy exporter.
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So far, the West has stopped short of targeting Russia's oil and gas exports, but customers are steering clear of them anyway due to fears of becoming entangled in the sanctions.
The International Monetary Fund on Saturday said it expected to bring Ukraine's request for $1.4 billion in emergency financing to its board for approval as early as next week and was in talks about funding options with authorities in neighboring Moldova.
In a statement, the global lender said the war in Ukraine was already driving energy and grain prices higher and had sent a wave of more than 1 million refugees to neighboring countries while triggering unprecedented sanctions on Russia.
WTI already experienced a traumatic scenario on April 20, 2020, with a steep fall to hit -$40. Undoubtedly, this was a single-day fall while it was trading at $18. No one was ready to think of this traumatic situation even a day earlier. This incident/accident is an example of the cruelty of crude.
The current war-like situation has resulted in a sudden spike in palladium prices to hit a multi-year high that could result in cost-escalation for cars and trucks due to palladium's use in making vehicle emissions systems. As prices rise higher for oil consuming vehicles, Electric Vehicles may become even more popular.
Technically speaking, crude oil has already given some advance signals for upcoming exhaustion in prices.
In the monthly chart, WTI Crude Oil Futures are currently at the same crucial level where they faced stiff resistance from 2011 to 2013. If the current Ukraine-Russia situation worsens, WTI could form a double top at $147—tested in July 2008 before the advent of a steep fall that continued to drag down crude prices to $62.56 in December 2008.
The current situation is forming what looks like a repeat of the 2008 price-action. But this time, the immediate target for oil bears could be $62 while the oil bulls look ready to hit $130 this month.
The weekly chart shows immediate support for WTI at $105. But the formation of a bullish crossover in January 2021 looks quite supportive for growing strength in WTI to move upward.
On the other hand, an exhaustive candle formed last week which seems to point to a potential sudden fall due to short selling at the closing last Friday.
On the daily chart, WTI shows the reluctance of oil bulls to move upward, which could lead to weakness if the Ukraine crises were to see some positive developments.
Undoubtedly, the sanctions imposed by NATO and European countries have some loopholes, enabling an uninterrupted supply of oil and gas from Russia.
Disclaimer: The author of this analysis does not have any position in natural gas and WTI futures. Readers are advised to take any position at their own risk; as natural gas is one of the most liquid commodities of the world.
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