WSJ Economists' May Forecasts for 10-Year Yields And The Fed Funds Rate
Doug Short | May 19, 2015 12:50AM ET
On Wednesday the Fed will release the FOMC Minutes for its April meeting. Meanwhile let's take a quick look at a couple of items in the May Wall Street Journal survey of economists , starting with where the Federal Reserve is headed with the Fed Funds Rate, which is currently hovering around 0.12 percent.
The May survey was sent to 72 economists, with responses received from 62. Here is a table showing the major response statistics -- Low, Median (middle), Average (aka Mean) and High -- at six-month intervals from June 2015 to December 2017.
Here is the equivalent table showing the forecasts for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note yield, which closed Friday at 2.14 percent.
Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's a short visual essay illustrating the forecast averages for the two series, rounded to one decimal.
Economic indicators this year have been a mixed bag. The most popular headline employment numbers (new nonfarm jobs and the unemployment rate) have been encouraging. In contrast, Industrial Production has been weak, and Retail Sales have been abysmal. And last month's Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts showed contraction. For more on these Big Four indicators, see our latest update .
Meanwhile, the economists in the latest WSJ survey have only slightly moderated their optimistic view of the US economy over the past three months. Below are the same column charts for the April and March surveys.
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What will the future bring? Recall the 1956 Academy Award winner for best song: Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be), immortalized by Doris Day. Will retail sales resume their long-term upward trend? Will the 10-year Note yield be approaching 5.5 percent by the end of 2017 (the highest forecasts in the first table above)? Only time will tell.
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