World Markets Update: Weak Note At Year-End
Doug Short | Jan 03, 2016 12:09AM ET
The final, holiday-centric week of 2015 ended on a weak note with only three of the eight indexes on our world watch list posting gains. Japan's Nikkei was the standout with a 1.30% rise. India's SENSEX was close behind with a 1.08% gain. Germany's DAX posted a fractionally positive 0.14%. China's Shanghai was the biggest loser, down 2.03%.
However, when we look at the annual performance, the Shanghai had the best year-over-year gain, up 9.41%. Japan's Nikkei was close behind with its 9.07% advance. Third and fourth place go to the two Eurozone indexes — France's CAC 40 up 8.53% and Germany's DAX up 6.85%. The S&P 500 ended the year with a 0.73% loss. The UK's FTSE parted company with its Eurozone neighbors, down 4.93% for 2015. India' SENSEX was a tad weaker at -5.03%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng had the worst record for the year, down 7.16%.
Here is an overlay of the eight for a sense of their comparative performance so far in 2015.
The big story, internationally, was the Shanghai Bubble. Although the benchmark China was the top YoY performer in our gain of eight with its 9.41% gain, it had been up nearly 60% for the year in June.
Here is a table of the 2015 year end performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. Four of the eight had year-to-date gains, down from five last week, the S&P 500 being the one that slipped from the green to red.
h2 A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks/h2The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks (through year's end) for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
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The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
h3 A Longer Look Back/h3
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.
Check back next week for a new update.
Note: We track Germany's DAXK a price-only index, instead of the more familiar DAX index (which includes dividends), for consistency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends.
All the indexes are calculated in their local currencies.
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