World Markets Update: The Surge Accelerates
Doug Short | Jan 25, 2015 12:42AM ET
Seven of eight indexes on my world market watch list posted weekly gains, with the three European indexes topping the list, thanks to the ECB's QE. France's CAC 40 was up 5.96%, Germany's DAX rose 4.74% and the UK's FTSE 100 gained 4.31%. But the list of big winners extended beyond Europe. The three Asia-Pacific Indexes posted gains ranging from 3.10% to 4.11%. The S&P 500 was the poorest performer of the weekly winners, but its 1.60% gain snapped a three-week losing streak. China's Shanghai Composite posted the only weekly loss, down a modest -0.73%.
Here is a overlay of the eight for a sense of their comparative performance so far in 2015.
Here is a table of the 2015 data performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. Seven of the eight indexes in the green at this early point in the New Year, the S&P 500 being the negative outlier.
Six of the eight indexes closed the week at year-to-date highs.
h3 A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks/h3The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks (through year's end) for these eight major indexes. I've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier, on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
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h3 A Longer Look Back/h3
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.
Check back next week for a new update.
Note from dshort: I track Germany's DAXK a price-only index, instead of the more familiar DAX index (which includes dividends), for consistency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends. All the indexes are calculated in their local currencies.
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