World Markets Update: A Mixed Bag
Doug Short | Feb 07, 2014 02:30PM ET
At Friday's close, four of the indexes on my world watch list had weekly gains, four had weekly losses. France's CAC 40 was the top performer, up 1.50%, with the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 indexes in the second and third spots with 0.94% and 0.81% gains, respectively. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.56% on Friday after being closed the previous four days for Lunar New Year. Germany's DAXK joined the other three Asia-Pacific indexes in losses for the week, with Japan's Nikkei again coming in last with a 3.03% selloff.
The Shanghai Composite remains the only index on the watch list in bear territory -- the traditional designation for a 20% decline from an interim high. See the table inset (lower right) in the chart below . The index is down a mortifying 41.11% from its interim high of August 2009. At the other end, France's CAC 40 is only 2.40% from an interim high following its 2009 low, and the S&P 500 is only 2.78% from its all-time high of January 15th.
Here is a look at 2014 so far.
Here is a table highlighting the year-to-date index performance, sorted from high to low, along with the 2014 interim highs for the eight indexes. At this point, all eight indexes are in the red, with last year's big winner, the Nikkei, now in the YTD cellar.
A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks for these eight major indexes. I've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
Get The News You Want
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
A Longer Look Back
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.
Check back next week for a new update.
Note from dshort: I track Germany's DAX index (which includes dividends), for constency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends.
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