Will Winter-Affected U.S. Retail Sales Data Stop The USD?

GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: short at 1.0625, target 1.0335, stop-loss 1.0770, risk factor **
USD/JPY: long at 121.10, target 123.55, stop-loss 119.60, risk factor *
GBP/USD: short at 1.5015, target 1.4810, stop-loss 1.5110, risk factor ***
USD/CHF: long at 1.0010, target 1.0300, stop-loss 0.9900, risk factor *
USD/CAD: long at 1.2680, target 1.2860, stop-loss 1.2580, risk factor **
AUD/USD: short at 0.7640, target 0.7340, stop-loss 0.7790, risk factor ***
NZD/USD: short at 0.7390, target 0.7130, stop-loss 0.7510, risk factor ***
EUR/GBP: short at 0.7080, target 0.6920, stop-loss 0.7190, risk factor **
EUR/CHF: long at 1.0670, target 1.0990, stop-loss 1.0570, risk factor *
AUD/NZD: long at 1.0460, target 1.0700, stop-loss 1.0340, risk factor ***

EUR/USD: Will Winter-Affected U.S. Retail Sales Data Stop The USD?
(short at 1.0625)

• Industrial production in the Euro zone fell 0.1% mom and increased 1.2% yoy in January compared to the forecast for 0.2% mom rise. December industrial output growth was revised up to 0.6% yoy from -0.2% yoy previously.
• European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure said the ECB quantitative easing programme had kicked off without a hitch and the bank had no problems in finding bonds to buy. The ECB has bought EUR 9.8 bn worth of assets in three days, with an average maturity of 9 years, putting it well on track to reaching a total of EUR 60 billion in bonds in March.
• Ewald Nowotny, a member of the ECB's decision-making Governing Council, said: “The ECB, as a central bank, does not have the exchange rate as a policy. It is a side effect of other things. (…) I think it would be wrong to assume that what is going on right now is a currency war.”
• The EUR/USD broke below the barrier of 1.0500 today in Asia and fell as far as 1.0494 (new 12-year low) before recovering to 1.0644 in the European session today. However, bearish sentiment remains intact. We used higher levels to get short at 1.0625, in line with our trading strategy. The nearest target is 1.0335 (monthly low on January 2003). In the medium-term the EUR/USD is likely to break below long-term fibo support at 1.0072 (76.4% of 0.8228-1.6040) and fall to parity, that was last witnessed in 2002.
• Investors now await U.S. retail sales data later in the day to see if the figures can reinforce expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by mid-year. We should expect poor retail sales results today due to the harsh cold weather in the USA.

Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0718 (high Mar 11), 1.0855 (high Mar 10), 1.0906 (high March 6)
Support: 1.0494 (low Mar 12), 1.0335 (monthly low Jan 2003), 1.0072 (76.4% of 0.8228-1.6040)

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AUD/USD: No Surprises In Australian Jobs Data
(short at 0.7640)

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed employment rose 15.6k in February vs. the median forecast of 15.0k. There were 10.3k full-time jobs added to the economy, while 5.3k part-time jobs were added. However, there was a decline in employment participation of 0.1 percentage point to 64.6%. The jobless rate fell to 6.3% from 6.4%, in line with market expectations.

• Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has cautioned against reading too much into any one month's figures given the notorious volatility of the series. The central bank expects the unemployment rate to creep higher for some time yet, and to peak higher and later than hoped last year. That was one reason it cut interest rates in February.
• However, there are some signs of improvement of the situation on labor market. Figures from ANZ out this week showed job advertisements in newspapers and on the Internet rose for the ninth straight month in February to their highest in at least two years. Householders are also becoming less fearful of losing their jobs with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of unemployment expectations showing ongoing improvement in March.
• The market still expects the RBA to cut rates in April. However, we do not expect such a move. In our opinion the RBA will wait for quarterly CPI data and may act in May, but we do not assume further cuts this year in our baseline scenario.
• The AUD opened below 0.7600 in Asia today, but then recovered. The as forecasted set of numbers supported the AUD bulls. We used higher AUD/USD levels to get short at 0.7640, in line with our strategy. We expect the AUD to recover against the NZD in the coming days, as in our opinion expectations for a rate cut in Australia will be fading.

Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.7707 (high Mar 10), 0.7740 (high Mar 9), 0.7846 (high Mar 6)
Support: 0.7574 (hourly low Mar 12), 0.7561 (low Mar 11, 2015), 0.7451 (low May 18, 2009)

NZD/USD: RBNZ Rates Cuts Unlikely
(short at 0.7390)

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its benchmark rate steady, as widely expected.
• RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said the strength of New Zealand's economy, with growth projected above 3% over the next two years, was the key difference versus countries such as Australia and Canada, which have seen rates cuts this year. Wheeler said a 1-3% inflation band was still an appropriate policy framework and the target of reaching the midpoint was still "highly relevant". Let us remind that New Zealand’s inflation fell to 0.8% yoy in fourth quarter 2014. He said inflation expectations and how they affected wage- and price- setting would be important.
• The RBNZ sees annual CPI at 0.4% at the end of 2015 (vs. 1.5% previously), 2.0% at the end of 2016 (vs. 2.0% previously). The RBNZ sees GDP growth at 3.2% in year-to-March 2015 (vs. 3.5% previously) and 3.5% in year-to-March 2016 (vs. 3.1% previously)
• The RBNZ said it was pleased to see the fall in the NZD.
• We expect the RBNZ to keep rates unchanged by the end of the year. In our opinion the next move will be a rate hike and it is possible at the beginning of 2016.
• The NZD/USD jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did not show inclination to cut rates anytime soon. Some traders were hoping that the RBNZ might follow the Australian and Canadian central banks.
• Our short NZD/USD taken reached its stop-loss level at 0.7320. Given broad USD strength, we got short again today at 0.7390. The target is the same as previously – 0.7130.

Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 0.7407 (hourly high Mar 12), 0.7515 (high Mar 6), 0.7596 (high Mar 5)
Support: 0.7275 (hourly low Mar 12), 0.7192 (low March 11), 0.7177 (low Feb 3)

Written By: Growth Aces