Edison | Oct 25, 2012 02:09AM ET
Redectane and Mesupron are now Wilex’s (WL6.DE) key products after the Rencarex Phase III ARISER data showed no efficacy; Rencarex has been discontinued. After the July ODAC meeting determined that a hypothetical imaging test for clear cell renal carcinoma would be clinically useful, the FDA agreed that a Redectane confirmatory study could lead to a US filing. The design and timing of the REDECT-2 Phase III are being finalised. Mesupron has good Phase II data in both pancreatic and HER-2 negative breast cancer and could be partnered in 2013. Wilex is funded into 2014; Q3 cash was €28.7m.
Q3 financial position
Wilex’s annual cash need after sales margins has been indicated at €20-24m. Q3 revenues to 31 August were €11.3m with other income of €1.5m: €12.8m total. €9.7m of the revenues arose from part recognition of Prometheus’s Rencarex payments with €1.6m in sales from the Heidelberg and diagnostics operations.
Valuation: Rests on Mesupron deal in 2013
The indicative value of Wilex is under review after the Rencarex failure, but a provisional value is likely to be in the €1.20-1.50/share range, materially reduced. The value of some technologies (like ADC) is not included but could be significant. A Mesupron deal is expected in 2013 after good trend data were seen in both the pancreatic and breast cancer studies. This could boost Wilex’s value to perhaps the €2.00-2.50/share range.
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