Why Volatility Favors Gold ETFs
David Fabian | Oct 15, 2014 01:19PM ET
The majestic rise and fall of gold-related ETFs can only be described as a wild roller coaster ride of emotionally-driven price swings. This once beloved asset class has fallen out of favor so many times this year that it's hard to keep track of the number of false breakouts and breakdowns.
One of the most widely followed and heavily owned Gold indicators is the SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD). This ETF is setup to track the daily spot price of gold bullion through a trust that is traded as a liquid and low-cost investment vehicle . Physical gold is purchased or sold by GLD and held in a vault to maintain the underlying basket of yellow metal in conjunction with the net asset value of the fund.
A look at a two-year chart of GLD shows just how unpredictable the price movement has been in recent memory. GLD has once again fallen to the all important $115 level, which has been a support line that has attracted buyers back in on multiple occasions. Three times over the last two years this line has been tested and led to a subsequent sharp rally. In addition, recent volatility in stocks has once again stepped in to play a key role in propping up precious metals prices at a pivotal moment.
The Value Line In The Sand
For value investors or short-term traders, this marks an important line in the sand that is likely going to draw significant attention over the next several weeks. If GLD can once again regain its 50-day moving average, this will provide additional fodder for a re-rest of the mid-year highs. However, there will also be a healthy dose of skepticism that this upswing can be sustainable based on the number of times that gold bullion has failed to hold its gains.
Interestingly enough, both the December 2013 low and the recent October low in GLD coincided with short-term tops in the stock market followed by a vicious round of equity selling. Gold has historically been a safe haven asset class, similar to treasury bonds during times of turmoil in stocks.
One of the overriding reasons is the notion that gold bullion is a store of value with tangible qualities that paper assets don’t possess. However, it is still very much susceptible to the whims of buyers and sellers in the marketplace. This makes it a tradable commodity that ebbs and flows with supply and demand forces.
It’s been a similar story in the Market Vectors Gold Miners (ARCA:GDX), which has followed a parallel price pattern to gold bullion over the last two years. GDX tracks 42 large and mid-cap gold mining stocks spread around the world and has over $6.5 billion in assets. This ETF recently pulled back near its 2013 lows and will likely hold this support line if gold prices stabilize.
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Keep This In Mind
One word of caution is that gold mining ETFs are often more price sensitive than gold bullion. This can lead to wide swings in both directions that may be more suitable for aggressive investors or those that are comfortable with heightened volatility. Consequently, any rally or sell off will bring a consummate higher level of risk and reward in this sector.
Despite the unpredictable nature of gold this year, the negative sentiment and long-term support line may provide a chance for the bulls to reassert themselves in this beaten down asset class. However, if you do decide to dip a toe in the water, I recommend that you do so with a defined stop loss or sell discipline to limit your downside risk.
Disclosure : FMD Capital Management, its executives, and/or its clients may hold positions in the ETFs, mutual funds or any investment asset mentioned in this article. The commentary does not constitute individualized investment advice. The opinions offered herein are not personalized recommendations to buy, sell or hold securities.
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