Jeb Handwerger | Feb 23, 2013 07:17AM ET
Gold may look to base at 2012 lows at $1550. Whenever gold has moved below the 200 day moving average it has proved to be a buying opportunity in this 12 year uptrend, which I believe is firmly intact due to the underlying fundamentals. Record sovereign debt, negative real rates and continued currency wars could all be catalysts for the next price spike.
Remember billionaire traders such as Soros always seem to cut their stakes when gold hits a bottom and tends to buy when it is overbought. I would use these bearish media articles as a contrary signal. Remember the filings are for the previous quarter and is like looking in a rear view mirror. Many times a few weeks later one sees these same traders come right back into the market and buy.
Despite this powerful base gold is building and the minimal correction, many investors have been shaken out and impatient seeking out greener pastures in the toxic housing and financial sector, which is being manipulated by the Banks.
I have always advised patience and may have investment horizons longer than the average investor. I follow the long term cycles and trends, which still indicates by both technical and fundamental analysis that precious metals and wealth in the earth are in a secular bull market.
All these quantitative easing moves around the world to boost housing and financials could have major long term consequences on our banking and foreign exchange system. Precious metals will continue to climb as the expansion of the monetary base continues to reach record levels.
Short term, the real estate and banking sectors may get a boost and inflation may be tempered. Historically, capital will flow to quality hedges against inflation which is precious metals, commodities and the undervalued miners.
These undervalued sectors have been forming long multi-year bases and may be on the verge of a potential breakout. Attempts at boosting toxic sectors while keeping the lid on inflation may be working temporarily. However, the general equity markets are reaching record heights while our sectors are testing multi-year lows. This is a record divergence from the historical mean. Whenever divergences occur be prepared for a move back to the long term average. This means the miners could outpace equities.
Do not follow the herd and become impatient. As the miners test 2012 lows, look at cheap value quality situations and be ready for a rebound.
What do these investment giants find so compelling in Tower Hill Mines? This company controls one of the largest undeveloped gold resources in the entire world and should provide great leverage to a rising gold bullion price.
Tower Hill feels that there is still potential exploration upside and that their Livengood Project could be one of the largest producing gold mines in North America. The project is located about 70 miles northwest of Fairbanks, Alaska, one of the most favorable jurisdictions in the entire world.
This area of Alaska has a history of mining and the land use has been designated for mining. There are other mines in the district including Kinross’s world class Fort Knox Mine which has been a success. This means that there is an available highly skilled labor force nearby.
International Tower Hill Mines controls 100% of a world class gold deposit located in an exceptional mining district. The company is working on the bankable feasibility study (BFS) due mid year 2013. This may be a true value driver as it will provide third party verification of the economic viability of the project.
Despite having a very difficult two years, I believe that 2013 could be a turnaround year as they come closer to publishing a bankable feasibility study. Just be aware that a major could gobble them up beforehand. Look for 2 year downtrend to be broken to the upside.
Below you may find the video.
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