Why ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ Still Resonates With Wall Street in 2025
Adam Turquist | May 02, 2025 12:24PM ET
Origins: The saying "Sell in May and Go Away" has its roots in London, where it was originally phrased as "Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger's Day." The St. Leger is a renowned horse race in the U.K., dating back to 1776. The idea behind this adage is that investors should sell their stocks in May, take a break during the summer to avoid seasonal market downturns, and return to the market in November when conditions are typically more favorable.
Why is this phrase so popular? It might be due to a combination of math and marketing, areas where Wall Street excels. Besides being a catchy saying, the period from May to October has historically been the worst six-month return window for the S&P 500 since 1950. In contrast, the best-performing six-month window has been from November to April. This consistent seasonal pattern, coupled with the popularity of the phrase, may have turned it into a self-fulfilling prophecy over the years.
The table below highlights rolling six-month price returns for the S&P 500 across all 12-month periods since 1950. And while the May through October timeframe has historically underwhelmed with an average gain of only 1.8%, returns have been positive 65% of the time.
Rolling Six-Month S&P 500 Price Returns (1950-YTD)
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 04/30/25
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and can’t be invested in directly. The modern design of the S&P 500 stock index was first launched in 1957. Performance back to 1950 incorporates the performance of the predecessor index, the S&P 90.
Summary
Seasonality data can provide important insights into the potential market climate, but it doesn’t represent the current weather. And when it comes to markets, tariff uncertainty and monetary policy right now have the power to make it rain or part clouds into sunshine. From a technical standpoint, stocks have started to make some progress, but there is still a lot of damage to repair. Leadership trends primarily remain risk-off, most S&P 500 stocks remain in some form of a downtrend, and institutional participation in the recovery has been underwhelming. Furthermore, history shows V-shaped recoveries are outliers, as most major bottoms are a process that requires time and often a retest of the initial lows.
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