Wholesale Trade: Sales, Inventories, Revised GDP
Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Mar 11, 2015 01:43AM ET
The US Commerce Department's Monthly Wholesales Report for January 2015 shows sales are down while inventories continue to rise.
Wholesale Trade Sales
- Sales down 3.1% from the revised December level
- Sales for December revised lower by 0.5%
- Sales down 1.0% from January 2014
- Sales of electrical and electronic goods were down 4.4% from December
- Sales of metals and minerals, except petroleum were down 4.1% from December
- Sales of nondurable goods were down 4.6% from December
- Sales of nondurable goods were down 6.7% from last January.
- Sales of petroleum and petroleum products were down 13.5% from December
- Sales of drugs and druggists' sundries were down 3.6% from December
Wholesale Trade Inventories
- Inventories up 0.3% from the revised December level
- Inventories up 6.2% from January 2014 level
- Inventories for December revised downward by 0.1%
- January inventories of durable goods were up 0.6%
- January inventories of durable goods were up 7.7% from a year ago
- Inventories of electrical and electronic goods were up 2.4% from December
- Inventories of motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and supplies were up 1.6% from December
- Inventories of nondurable goods were down 0.1% from December
- Inventories of nondurable goods were up 3.7% from last January
- Inventories of farm product raw materials were down 4.6% from December
- Inventories of paper and paper products were up 3.0% from December
Inventory to Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted Sales
Seasonally Adjusted Sales Percent Change From Year Ago
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Diving Into the GDP Report
On January 31, I went Factory Orders Unexpectedly Decline 6th Month .
The adjusted Fed GDP forecast is rapidly approaching the stall point of 1%. It does take into consideration today's trade numbers.
But the US dollar continues its upward climb and much of the world is still slowing including our biggest trade partner, Canada.
In the history of the wholesale trade series dating back to 1993 (first three charts above), the only time sales have gone negative year-over-year was when the economy was in recession.
I am sticking with my recession call.
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