When Will The Financial Sector Stop Riding The Bear?
Michele Schneider | Oct 15, 2020 12:16AM ET
The banking sector has been put through the ringer since the March selloff.
While the market has rallied since then, SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE) still looks in need of help.
One thing to note is that JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) reported Q3 earnings stronger than expectations.
While JPM and GS are not part of the KRE ETF, it does give a hopeful view of more Q3 earnings to come.
Above is a daily chart of KRE with our RealMotion Indicator.
Real motion is a momentum based indicator, which in this case shows a partial improvement as the 50-DMA crossed over the 200-DMA before the price did on the chart.
It is still under the 0.00 black line, showing it still has an overall negative momentum.
This makes it evident how important it is for the price to clear resistance at the $40-41 level and hold.
We know the Fed will keep rates low til at least 2023, giving room for people and businesses to borrow money at some of the best rates possible.
What is still a factor is if and when new stimulus money comes into play. Will it play a role in fresh business debt and consumer loans?
Or does the hope of a vaccine hold more weight as businesses will feel more secure going forward knowing they have a more stable environment?
There looks to be a road to recovery in the works, whether it be through the vaccine or stimulus, but for now focusing on the earnings will give us the first light into what to expect in this sector.
Technically, KRE is in a Recuperation phase as long as it holds the 50-DMA or 38.21. A move over 41.00 would reverse a long term negative trend going back to the beginning of 2020.
S&P 500 SPY Broke 350.50 and now we could see a move to 343.
Russell 2000 159 next support
Dow DIA 282-283 next support
NASDAQ QQQ held 292 just where they needed to and have continue to do so.
KRE 38.20 the 50-DMA support
SMH (Semiconductors) Held up better with 183 support
IYT (Transportation) Close green leaving the impression that this is a gentle correction after a big move up
IBB (Biotechnology) 140.50 Support
XRT (Retail) with a possible reversal top pattern if closes Thursday under 53.86
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