What Is The “Market”?

 | Dec 21, 2014 01:18AM ET

Commentators are constantly bombarding the public with news regarding the “market”. It seems that every “market” move can be explained by the action of our President, OPEC, Draghi, Yellen, or a Goldman Sach’s analyst. As we all consume the commentary, we tend to ignore a glaring question, what is the “market”? To many it’s the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as this seems the most frequently quoted in the media. To others, it’s the S&P 500 Index, as it includes the vast majority of well-known U.S. companies. To some, it’s what their neighbor says they have made this year at the neighborhood holiday party.

Some may wonder why this even matters and what it has to do with alternative investments. The answer is that when trying to analyze how a portfolio or money manager has performed, it is important to understand what “market” is the appropriate comparison and what the drivers of performance have been. This is especially true when looking at months such as October and November when spreads between different markets were large (oil was down more than 14% while the Nasdaq 100 was up 4.6%) or when portfolio changes made mid-month drastically change performance outcomes (the S&P 500 was down 5.5% MTD through October 15th then reversed direction, gaining 8.4% in the second half of the month). When markets exhibit volatility, and dispersion between markets is high, investors need to ignore the commentators (and their neighbors) and instead endeavor to understand what is driving returns. Only then can useful conclusions be had.

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