What Does The Dive In Unemployment Claims Mean?
Mike (Mish) Shedlock | Feb 26, 2021 02:34AM ET
Initial unemployment fell to a seasonally adjusted 730,000 from a revised 841,000.
The answer depends on future revisions and trends which we do not know yet.
Two weeks ago initial jobless claims dipped to a reported 793,000 for the weekending Feb. 6.
Last week, the BLS revised Feb. 6 to 848,000 claims with the Feb. 13 at 861,000.
Today the BLS says Feb. 13 is 841,000 with the week ending Feb. 20 down to 730,000.
It's anyone's guess what the BLS will say a week from now about today's big dip. More on that below but first let's discuss continued claims.
h2 Continued State Unemployment Claims/h2We have seen slow progress in continued unemployment claims but much of this is masked by people expiring all of their state benefits and falling off the roles onto various federal programs.
The federal numbers are so skewed by fraud, reporting errors, and double counting distortions that I stopped posting them.
Continued claims lag initial claims by a week. We will have a better idea of initial claims improvement by watching revisions next week and improvements in continued claims.
h2 Powell Says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%/h2Fed Chair Jerome Powell says the True Unemployment Rate is Actually 10%.
That is far more believable than the BLS assertion that the unemployment rate is down to 6.3%.
However, Powell went off the deep end regarding one of the alleged cures. Please click on the above link for discussion.
h2 Vaccinations/h2Whether or not today's report is a mirage, vaccinations will come into play. The quicker people get vaccinations the quicker lockdowns and restrictions will end.
That in turn will impact both initial and continued claims. The worst is likely behind, but the recovery will still be slow in many industries, especially airlines, restaurants, and travel.
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Many people are working from home and there will be less corporate business travel as well.
h2 US Way Ahead of the EU on Vaccinations/h2Compared to the rest of the G-7 group of countries, the US is doing very well in vaccinations. Compared to Israel, the rest of the world lags.
h2 New Normal/h2The phrase "new normal" is widely overused but it sure applies here.
Many things will not return to where they were, especially the need for office space, mall traffic (on a secular decline anyway), and corporate travel.
Note that Powell Disses Inflation and Ignores Questions From Congress About Leverage
I suggest the Fed made a huge mistake, and if so, it's way too late to rectify.
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