Weekly Review Strategy: Week Of January 25, 2015
Forex Technical Analyst Trader | Jan 25, 2015 03:09AM ET
In this article I will provide my view on the AUD/USD and the NZD/CAD. These are the pairs that I am currently interested in or was interested in last week for trading with the FxTaTrader strategy. I will pick one to analyse in more detail from the pairs that have not been discussed yet recently.
- All trades are based on specific rules according to the strategy.
This article will provide:
- The weekly currency chart for the analyzed pair.
- The weekly (decision) TA chart for the analyzed pair.
- A Technical analysis for the analyzed pair of the Monthly, Weekly and Daily chart.
- A brief review on the other pairs.
- Possible positions for the coming week and open/closed positions.
Because of the high presence of the CHF pairs in the Top 10 it is better to use the Top 15 in the coming period. All the CHF pairs will be ignored for trading until the daily chart starts to show useful data.
According to the TA Charts, the "Currency score" and the "Ranking and Rating list" all the pairs in the Top 15 of the "Ranking and Rating list" are good to trade but the following pairs are not (yet) qualified according to the FxTaTrader Strategy rules:
- All the CHF pairs can best be avoided because of the high volatility in the coming period.
- The EUR/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/CAD, EUR/GBP. These pairs are far away from the Bollinger Band and a good pull back has to take place to make them interesting again for taking positions.
- The EUR/NZD is nearing the outside range of the Bollinger Band. When the trading week starts the Bollinger Band will show its new value which will be in the direction of the trend and most probably the mentioned pair will then come inside the Bollinger Band
When trading according to the FxTaTrader Hybrid Grid Strategy some rules are in place. For more information see the page on my blog FxTaTrader Strategy. Depending on the opportunities that may come up the decision to trade a currency may become more obvious at that moment.
Open/pending positions of last week
NZD/CAD
This pair will be analyzed briefly, for more information read the article Weekly Review Strategy Week 3 where the pair was tipped for going long. Last week a good pull back took place and 2 positions have been opened. Profit was made on 1 position of 1/4 Weekly ATR (44 pips) and on the second pull back a new position was opened with a profit target of 1/2 Weekly ATR (88 pips). At the moment this position is still open and another position with a trailing stop.
There was a possibility to take a higher profit on a second position which is having the trailing stop. However, this position will remain open as part of the recent adapted strategy that will close this position only after the uptrend shows weakness. This way it is possible to generate profit once price goes outside the Bollinger Band until it comes back inside while showing weakness in the trend.
- In the weekly chart the Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions although the MA's should cross by preference above the cloud.
- The MACD is in positive territory and gaining strength.
- The Parabolic SAR is long but not showing the preferred pattern of higher stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
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At the moment the pair is not high in the ranking and rating list because the NZD is having a lower currency score (4) compared to the previous weeks. The pair is clearly still consolidating but as long as price remain higher than 0,9175 the consolidation will be followed by a continuation of the uptrend.
Ranking and rating list Week 04
Rank: 25
Rating: +
Total outlook: Up
Possible positions for coming week
AUD/USD
This pair will be analyzed in detail. The pair had a strong pull back in the last weeks and this seems finished. It looks like the downtrend is resuming again. Also for this pair an additional position will be opened, like with the NZD/CAD. The pair is still within the Weekly Bollinger Band and if the downtrend resumes it will go outside of it and the additional position will remain open until the downtrend slows down and the pair comes back within the Bollinger Band again. This way benefit can be taken of the whole trend completing besides the initial entries with profit targets of 1/4 and 1/2 Weekly ATR which are placed within the Bollinger Band at the start of a trend.
- As can be seen in the Currency Score chart in my previous article of this weekend Forex Weekly Currency Score Week 4, the USD is having a score of 7 and the AUD a score of 3. With a Currency score difference of 4 and the USD having a classification of a stronger currency while the AUD is a weaker currency it is an interesting pair in the coming week for going short.
- In the current list of this weekend Forex Ranking & Rating Week 4 the pair has a rank of 11. This list is used as additional information besides the Currency score and the Technical analysis charts.
- Besides the general information mentioned the outlook in the TA charts also makes it an attractive opportunity.
Ranking and rating list Week 4
Rank: 11
Rating: - -
Weekly Currency score: Down
Based on the currency score the pair looked interesting in the last 3 months. The USD is a stronger currency from a longer term perspective and currently having a currency score of 7. The AUD is a weaker currency from a longer term perspective and currently having a score of 3. Based solely on this information the pair does look interesting for going short in the coming week.
Monthly chart: Down
- On the monthly(context) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
- The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions although the MA's should cross by preference below the cloud.
- The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
- The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
- Since the monthly chart is used to get the context how that pair is developing for the long term the indicators are looking fine because they are showing strength in the current downtrend.
Weekly chart: Down
- On the weekly(decision) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
- The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
- The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
- The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
Daily chart: Down
- On the daily(timing) chart the indicators are looking strong for going short.
- The Ichimoku is meeting all the conditions.
- The MACD is in negative area and gaining strength.
- The Parabolic SAR is short and showing the preferred pattern of lower stop loss on opening of new long and short positions.
Total outlook: Down
Although the explanation may seem simple and clear there is always risk involved. I added a FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don't forget to check my weekly Forex "Ranking and Rating list" and the "Currency Score".
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