Weekly Market Brief: Forecasts For The FTSE, DAX, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 And Dow
Francesco Bergamini | Oct 16, 2022 08:23AM ET
The FTSE100 index had a week down by - 1.89%. For the week ahead, we are in favor of recovery to at least 7,150.
h2 Indicators/h2Week of further declines for the British index, which saw the 6.700 area tested for the first time since March 2021. The strong volatility of the last two days gives us little direction in the short to medium term, and it is appropriate to wait for the price to consolidate.
At the moment we see two possible scenarios: the first sees a possible consolidation in the large area between 6,700 and 6,900 followed by a break to the upside at least up to 7,200. This hypothesis is supported by a slowdown in the 9-day moving average (red line) and a strong downward extension within the Bollinger bands.
The second scenario, on the other hand, takes into account the fact that if the support at 6.700 does not hold, the index could quickly fall to 6.500: it is in fact in situations of strong oversold that specific supports may not hold the downward pressure.
MACD and RSI, both very extended to the downside, suggest a possible recovery of vigor, especially compared to past levels. We carefully monitor the bearish trendline on the RSI, with a slight positive divergence with the lows of the beginning of September.
We remain neutral on the FTSE100 looking for a more stable price.
- Support at 6,850
- Resistance at 7,200
The FTSE MIB index had a week up by + 0.14%. For the week ahead, we are in favor of recovery to at least 21,700.
h2 Indicators/h2A week that could be defined as one of substantial consolidation for the Italian index, the strong area between 20,000 -21,000 seems to slowdown the strong downward pressure in place since the beginning of 2022.
Although the large volatility of the last two days gives little direction, we can see how the level of 20,000 coincides with the strong resistance between June - November 2020. The second aspect, assuming a bearish channel in place since the beginning of the year, we note a continuous price action on the upper part of this channel: this could in fact give rise to possible break to the upside.
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MACD and RSI are both positive: the first is close to a cross of its respective doing averages and the second is close to break the bearish trendline that started in August 2022. We are positive on the FTSEMIB but expect to break out of the 21,500-22,000 level.
- Support at 21,500
- Resistance at 23,650
The DAX index had a week up by + 1.34%. For the coming week, we are in favor of a possible recovery to at least 12,800.
h2 Indicators/h2Positive week for the German index which saw the price remaining above the support at 12,200.
Another positive indicator is the close above the 9-day average (red line) which could support the hypothesis of short-term rises. At the same time, given the Friday's price action, the beginning of the week could see a back-test of the support at 12,200.
MACD and RSI are both recovering, which is favourable for short to medium term upside potential.
We are positive on the DAX40 but look forward to a further test at 12,200 and / or break above 12,750. The trend is still strongly bearish and at the moment the price is only consolidating within the wide range between 11,800 - 12,750.
- Support at 12,000
- Resistance at 13,600
The S&P 500 index had a week down by -1.55%. For the coming week, we are in favor of a possible recovery to at least 3,800.
h2 Indicators/h2A week that saw August's bearish trendline being again respected: only its gradual break could lead us to look for medium-term rises.
The price is now at mid-2020 levels and a break of 3,500 could quickly lead the SPX to reach 3,400 - 3,300.
While the price action does not give us particular direction, the internal MACD and RSI indicators are slightly recovering and in positive divergence with the price. Especially the second broke the bearish trendline in place since August 2022.
We are positive on the S&P500 and await a consolidation above 3,700 as a possible break of the 3,500 level could quickly change the scenario in favour of further declines.
- Support at 3,645
- Resistance at 4,100
The NASDAQ index had a week down by -3.15%. For the coming week, we are in favor of a possible recovery to at least 11,400.
h2 Indicators/h2Week that now sees the Tech index moving in the area tested in October 2021.
The declines continue to respect the bearish trendline started in August, where we see a price moving regularly between the bottom of the Bollinger band and the 9-day moving average (red line): as long as this scenario remains valid, the trend will continue to be on the downside.
Looking at previous swings, a consolidation above the 9-day moving average could be a good sign of price recovery. The internal MACD and RSI indicators are slightly recovering and could support the index once it exceeds 11,200.
We are positive on the NASDAQ 100, also given the strong downward extension, but we prefer to wait for price confirmations.
- Support at 10,400
- Resistance at 12,000
The Dow Jones Industrial Average index had a week up by + 1.15%. For the coming week, we are in favor of a possible recovery to at least 31,500.
h2 Indicators/h2Positive week that seems to position the DJI towards possible short-medium term rises: after the strong falls in September, the index seems to consolidate in the wide area between 28.700-30.500 and only the break of one of the two levels will give us more information on the price action.
A bearish break of the 28,700 level could bring the index very quickly to the 27,000 level. MACD and RSI suggest a bullish scenario, both finding themselves in a clear recovery and in positive divergence with the price action.
We are positive on the Dow Jones and ready to consider long setups in the event of a break to the upside.
- Support at 29,170
- Resistance at 32,000
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