Weekly Economic Watch
The National Bank of Canada | May 17, 2016 05:54AM ET
Canada – Housing starts fell 5.4% to reach 191.5K in April. That was roughly in line with consensus expectations. The decrease in starts was felt in both urban (-4.6%) and rural areas (-12.5%). The decline in urban starts was split between multis (- 4%) and single family homes (-5.8%). On a regional basis in urban areas, there were sharp declines in Ontario (-26.7%) and Quebec (-7.7%) which more than offset gains in BC (+14.4%), the Prairies (+37.7%) and Atlantic Canada (+47.3%).
The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index rose 1.2% in April thanks to gains in ten of the 11 metropolitan regions covered. On a year-on-year basis, home prices were up 8.1% nationally. There were above-average year-on-year increases in Vancouver, Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria, which averaged a hot 13.8%. The seven remaining cities in the index ─ Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Quebec City, Halifax ─ are contracting 1.3% on average (10th consecutive month in negative territory on a year-on-year basis). So, the Canadian real estate market is already in correction mode. The only outliers, for now, are four cities which are in provinces blessed with above-average employment creation and solid immigration levels.
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