Weekly Currency Score: Week 29
Forex Technical Analyst Trader | Jul 12, 2015 04:08AM ET
The Currency Score analysis is one of the parameters used for the Ranking and Rating list which was published earlier this weekend. Besides this analysis and the corresponding chart I also provide the weekly analysis on my strategy and the forex ranking and rating list which is available 3 times a week on this blog.
It is recommended to read the page Models in practice for a better understanding of the article. This article will provide my analysis on the 8 major currencies based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 time frames, the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis is the 2 screenshots in this article showing the Currency Score and the Currency Score Difference.
Last 3 months currency classification
The last 3 months currency classifications from a longer term perspective are provided for reference purposes. The necessary charts can be found in the previous article Weekly Currency Score: Week 27. The currencies are classified for the coming weeks as follows:
- Strong: GBP / USD / CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8.
- Average: CAD / EUR. The preferred range is from 4 to 5.
- Weak: NZD / AUD / JPY. The preferred range is from 1 to 3.
Currency Score
For analyzing the best pairs to trade this classification is the first issue. When looking at the most recent score that is used for the coming period we can see in the screenshot below the following deviations:
- The CAD has a score of 2. This is an average currency and it should have by preference a score from 4 to 5. It has a score at the moment of a weak currency.
- The JPY has a score of 4. This is a weak currency and it should have by preference a score from 1 or 3. It has a score at the moment of an average currency.
The conclusion is:
- Most currencies are at the right level when looking at the last 3 months currency classification. The CAD and the JPY are not at the right level.
- There is an increase of momentum for the CAD that is getting weaker.
- There is a pullback for the JPY when looking at the market as a whole.
- The pairs that we may look at are all most probably trending except for the pairs with the JPY which are most probably ranging.
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Currency Score difference
According to the Ranking and Rating list already published this weekend the following pair combinations look interesting:
- GBP/AUD with the CAD/CHF
- AUD/CHF with the GBP/CAD
- NZD/CHF with the AUD/USD
When looking at the Currency Score Table here below for this week we can see the currency score differences. The interesting pairs should have by preference a score difference of 4 or higher when they are similarly classified. Or the better classified pair should have a higher score than the counterpart. All the pairs mentioned above comply for trading in the coming week. The Currencies are colored Green, Orange and Red resp. by the classification they have. This way it is easier to see what currencies should have a certain score difference.
The technical analysis is the most important issue to consider before taking positions. The Weekly Chart is analyzed. I prefer the Bollinger Band for defining where a pair is in the chart. Once a pair is outside a Bollinger Band it is in a strong trend which can cause a strong pullback. Although this may be a good opportunity for other analysts I avoid taking positions because of the possible unexpected strong pullback. Positions are only opened inside the Bollinger Band and this may be at the start of a possible trend or on a good pullback in an existing trend.
- The GBP/AUD is in an uptrend and just outside the Bollinger Band. Most probably it will be inside when trading starts again.
- The CAD/CHF is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band.
- The AUD/CHF is in a downtrend and at the Bollinger Band.
- The GBP/CAD is in an uptrend and within the Bollinger Band.
- The NZD/CHF is in a downtrend and within the Bollinger Band.
- The AUD/USD is in a downtrend and at the Bollinger Band.
More details on the (possible) traded pairs will be provided in my strategy article that will also be published this weekend. The possible positions for coming week for the strategy will then also be described.
If you would like to use this article then mention the source by providing the URL FxTaTrader.com or the direct link to this article. Good luck in the coming week and don't forget to check my weekly forex "Strategy Review" and the "Ranking and Rating list".
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