Weekly COT Report: WTI Bulls Continue To Flee, Bears Remain Side-Lined
City Index | Jun 03, 2019 01:51AM ET
- Large speculators increased net-long exposure to USD by just $0.48 billion to $31.3 billion ($35.7 billion against G10 currencies).
- Traders were net-short NZD Futures at their most bearish level since December 2018.
- Net-short exposure on GBP was its most bearish since March, although we’ve seen a rise in both long and short bets.
- Overall, volume changes across FX majors were relatively minor and all below 6k contracts.
- Large speculators were their most bearish on Silver since September 2018.
- Traders were the most bearish on Copper since late January.
- Whilst Platinum remains net-long, a rise of short interest saw traders their least bullish since February.
- Net-long exposure on WTI fell to its least bullish level since March.
USD:
Over the past four weeks, traders have reduced net-long exposure by -$3.6 billion after being their most bullish since Q4 2015. Over this time we’ve also seen the US dollar index fail to hold above 98, suggesting a temporary top could be in place.
NZD:
Large speculators increased gross short exposure to +41,1k contracts, their most bearish level since November 2018. -5.3k long contracts were closed. Total open interest is also rising to show underlying strength in the bearish positioning.
As of Tuesday 28th May:
Get The News You Want
Gold:
Last week -9.2k long contracts and -7k short contracts closed and the past two reports show a reduction of -25.9k contracts have been closed. Yet gold continues to rally. We noted on Friday that gold bears may have been squeezed near the lows, as the shiny yellow metal has now rallied 2.8% after traders since volumes were reduced. Given the strength of gold’s rally, we expect longs have been added again in next week’s report.
Silver:
We could be approaching a sentiment extreme on Silver, as traders are not too far from the record level of short bets. With data going back to March 1995, there has only been a handful of times that Silver has been net-short, and September 2018 set the record at -29k contracts short. As of last week, traders were net-short by -22.4k contracts.
WTI:
Whilst WTI remains under selling pressure, we note that short interest has not risen despite the closure of longs. This continues to point to a correction as opposed to a change in trend. With momentum on WTI pointing glower, we prefer to sell into rallies over the near-term and monitor price action for a potential base to form.
Original Post
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.