Weekly Commodity Futures Forecasts: April 29 - May 6
Evgeny Ilyukhin | May 01, 2016 01:16PM ET
The article aims to provide price forecasts for commodity futures for May 06, 2016. The table below shows the weekly commodity futures prices in US dollars over the period from April 01, 2016 to April 29, 2016 (commodity exchanges data) and forecasted period - May 06, 2016 (author’s calculations). The commodities are classified and placed in alphabetical order. The commodity metrics and names of exchanges are provided. Forecasted values: increase in green; decrease in red. Forecasts are projected with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on weekly historical data. It is advised to use forecasted values for identifying the short-term price trends over the period firstly. Because of unsatisfied accuracy in forecasting price trends, some ARIMA models have been corrected. In addition, the forecasted values have been adjusted to the recent price movements. The significant positive changes are expected for Crude Oil WTI (5.78%), Soybean Meal (5.30%), Crude Oil Brent (5.23%), Heating Oil (5.14%). Silver (-4.37%), Gasoline (-3.41%), Rough Rice (-3.33), Orange Juice (-3.16%) will likely close in “red” on May 6, 2016. On the group level, only Meats (3.60%) and Energy (1.68%) commodities are expected to grow by the end of the next week.
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