Weekend Sentiment Summary: Bearish Sentiment Almost Non Existent
Tiho Brkan | Aug 13, 2013 03:41AM ET
- AAII survey readings came in at 40% bulls and 27% bears. Bullish readings fell by 4% while bearish readings rose by 2%. The AAII bull ratio (4 week average) currently stands at 64%, which indicates very high optimism amongst the retail investment community. For referencing, AAII bull ratio survey chart can been seen by clicking here .
Chart 8:
- Last weeks commitment of traders report showed a another weekly reduction in net long exposure towards the US Dollar. Cumulative positioning by hedge funds and other speculators stands slightly higher than $22 billion. Investors should note that hedge funds still hold short bets against almost all foreign currencies including, apart from the Euro where net longs are finally present. Aussie Dollar bets have reached record highs... again. Technically, the chart above shows that the US Dollar price action is testing the 2 year rising trend line.
- Currency Public Opinion survey readings on the US Dollar reverted back towards the mean after the recent US Dollar correction. At the same time, Public Opinion on the foreign currencies has bounced from the extremely pessimistic readings we saw a few weeks ago. All in all, nothing major to report here, just like last week.
- Last weeks commitment of traders report showed hedge funds and other speculators increased their net long exposure in the precious metals sector. Exposure currently stands at 51,600 net long contracts on Gold and 5,500 net long contracts on Silver. The chart above shows that Silver might have bottomed on the day speculators totally decreased their net long exposure (several weeks ago as readings approached 0). Recent price action seems to be breaking out of its prolonged downtrend.
- Public opinion on alternative currencies like Gold and Silver still continues to remain depressed, which is confirming the ultra bearish COT reports discussed above. Bear market is still in progress but there are signs that we are finally bottoming out. All in all, nothing new to discuss here.
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