David Tablish | Apr 28, 2015 01:32AM ET
Today I would like to focus in on the bigger picture by looking at some long term charts for the precious metals complex. I know most enjoy the action by looking at the minute charts, but they’re more likely to morph into something different as time goes on.
On the other hand, looking at the long term charts gives you a clearer perspective since changes come much more slowly and are less likely to morph into something else. A short term bottom on a minute chart vs a long term bottom on a monthly chart have two completely different meanings. If you see a big bottom on the monthly chart you know that the move will last more than just a few weeks or even a few months. It took a lot of smart investors with deep pockets to build out a bottoming formation...and they aren't going to bail out of potions easily.
Minute charts have their place when trying to fine tune or find an entry or exit point. They can also be used when a bigger pattern is building out with smaller individual chart patterns that end up creating the much bigger finished product. I also have a lot of ratio charts to show, which compare gold to the stock markets and some other commodities. These charts will give a feel for how gold is actually doing vs some other areas of the markets. As you know, commodities fell very hard last year and have been basically consolidating since the first of the year. Gold on the other hand, has been chopping out a sideways trading range going nowhere fast.
The first chart I would like to show is a weekly look at gold. You can see the downtrend that has been in place since gold topped out in 2011. When you look at this chart you’re seeing a classic downtrend where a stock is making lower highs and lower lows. To become even remotely bullish about gold, I would have to see it take out the top rail of the downtrend channel and then the top blue rail of the falling wedge. There is also the very important 65-week moving average that has done a pretty good job of holding resistance.
This is how any stock or market moves. Identifying a top, bottom or consolidation pattern is the hard part. Once you have that figured out, discerning the impulse move is easier compared to all the chopping around before the impulse move actually begins.
If you recall, the big neckline is taken from the 2008 H&S consolidation pattern’s neckline which I extended to the right side of this chart. Note how the heavy black neckline also is the same angle as the 2008 left and right shoulders. The chart also shows us the height for the shoulders on the massive H&S top, labeled NL symmetry rail.
This has to be the most symmetrical H&S pattern I’ve ever seen. The neckline is the heavy black dashed line which gave all the lower symmetry lines their angle. Note the two black arrows that sit on either side of the head, on the neckline.
The best way to see the symmetry is to follow the price action down on the left side of the chart to the green arrow and symmetry line. Before you go to the next arrow, follow the price action down on the right side, starting at the black arrow and following that side down to the green arrow. Then follow the rally up to the grey arrows, then back down to the purple arrows that show the bottoms for the left and right shoulders.
Where the pink arrow is—on the right side of the chart—is the only place where the price action failed to match the left side perfectly. As you can see, it didn’t affect the actual breakout and backtest, which was dead on the money.
You can see how the big black neckline and the top brown symmetry line helped form the H&S consolidation pattern that began in 2010 with the head forming on the big black neckline and the bottom of the left and right shoulders forming on the brown symmetry line. One last note: I have shown in the past how a rising or falling wedge can be part of a H&S pattern. The blue falling wedge shows you a perfect example of this. The left shoulder and head were formed inside the blue falling wedge and the right shoulder was formed after the breakout. This big H&S consolidation pattern is what launched the finally parabolic rally that ended this portion of gold’s bull market.
On the way down it also has done a good job of holding resistance. This chart also shows the brown shaded support and resistance zones that were taken from the bull market side of the chart. I have to admit that I didn’t think it would take almost two years for the blue falling wedge to mature.
What I think is happening now is that the almost-two-year blue falling wedge is going to be a halfway pattern down to the bear market low. I can see, once gold breaks out from the blue falling wedge, that we’ll see a drop down to the brown shaded S&R zone at the 1034 area and then a backtest move to the underside of the blue falling wedge. Then the capitulation phase begins in earnest. This is how I’m conceptualizing it at this point in time.
Note the neckline at 725 which held resistance on the initial hit in 2007, then declined a little bit and then broke through in grand fashion, but ran out of gas with the onset of the 2008 crash. Gold found support right where you would expect to find it, right on the neckline taken from the first reaction high off of the 1980 bull market. What's interesting is the H&S top. You see at the top of the chart, it has a price objective down to the 725 area which would be a logical place for a bottom of some kind to form.
The brown shaded area at the top of the chart shows two price objectives based on two different methods. The little red expanding triangle halfway pattern was the key to finding those price objectives. This chart shows you how much weaker silver has been vs gold as it broke down below its last consolidation pattern, the blue triangle last year. Gold still hasn’t broken below its huge consolidation pattern, but it looks like it’s getting close. As you can see, silver has been in a nice, defined downtrend channel during its bear market. It still remains to be seen, but it looks like silver is building a small H&S consolidation pattern similar to the one we looked at on some of the PM stock indexes.
Note the neckline symmetry rail which showed the height for the right shoulder that is just a parallel neckline moved up to the top of the left shoulder. It won’t take much of a move down for silver to reach brand new lows going back to 2009 or so.
If there was ever a place to look for some reverse symmetry, this chart is showing the setup is there. Right now this ratio is finding some initial support at the previous highs made back in 2012. If this ratio breaks below the brown shaded S&R zone, there will be little in the way to hold back the decline once it gets started. The neckline from the H&S bottom would be the first area to offer some support.
Note the parabolic move this ratio had in the 1990s when the INDU's bull market was in full force. Then the reversal of fortunes in 2000, during which the INDU topped and gold bottomed. This ratio bottomed in 2011 at 5.50. I know many goldbugs were looking for the ratio to go down to 1 : 1, as in 1980, but they were left holding the bag waiting for the 1 : 1 ratio to come into play. This ratio chart shows the INDU outperforming gold since the middle of 2011.
On the far right hand side of the chart you can see all three are building out potential H&S consolidation patterns. None have broken their necklines yet, but it looks like silver will be the first one to do so as it’s sitting very close to its neckline compared to the other two.
And there you have it . Long Term Charts trump everything . Keep them in mind each day that you trade.
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