Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation Takes Center Stage

 | Sep 10, 2021 09:07AM ET

Without any central bank meetings on the agenda next week, the spotlight will fall on the latest edition of US inflation and retail sales. The chances of a Fed taper announcement this month have fallen dramatically after the disappointing jobs report, but this dataset could still be crucial for the normalization timeline and the dollar. There’s also a storm of economic releases from the UK, Canada, Australia, and China.

Supply chain blues

It looks like inflation won’t cool as quickly as the Fed thinks. The idea was that the pandemic disrupted global supply chains, pushing prices higher for some goods and services, but those issues would get resolved fairly quickly as companies adapted and expanded their production capabilities.

That narrative took a beating lately as several Asian economies went into lockdowns to battle the Delta outbreak. Business surveys like the PMIs highlight that supply disruptions have become even worse. Production and shipping costs are rising, and companies are passing much of that on to consumers in the form of higher prices. Even the world’s largest chipmaker, TSMC, is raising its prices significantly next year.
Finally, New Zealand's second-quarter GDP stats will be released Thursday, but with the third quarter now almost over and the nation suffering shutdowns lately, markets will likely view this dataset as outdated.

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