XM Group | Aug 04, 2023 09:09AM ET
Dollar shines ahead of inflation test
Global markets are still reeling from the aftershocks of the US credit downgrade. Coupled with the Treasury’s announcement that it will be increasing its bond issuance in the coming months, these events propelled US yields higher this week, boosting the dollar through the interest rate channel.
The dollar attracted some safe-haven flows too, as riskier assets such as stocks suffered from the spike in yields. Moving forward, the question is whether this is the beginning of a lasting recovery in the US dollar, or simply a correction within the prevailing downtrend that started last year.
Over in China, the downturn in the manufacturing sector has taken a heavy toll on the economy and the stimulus measures announced by Beijing so far seem insufficient to turn the tide. This puts extra emphasis on the trade and inflation numbers for July, which will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
Another disappointing dataset could amplify concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, and by extension, keep China-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar under pressure.
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