Week Ahead – US and UK data to lead quiet week as dollar can’t make up its mind

 | May 07, 2021 09:56AM ET

After plenty of excitement from central banks and top-tier economic releases in the past couple of weeks, things will take a backseat over the next seven days. The slower news pulse could give way to some sideways action in currency markets as the US dollar fights off selling pressure. A more cautious mood on Wall Street could assist dollar bulls as stocks tend to perform poorly in May. There could be a further boost for the greenback coming in the form of the latest US CPI and retail sales numbers. The pound, meanwhile, which remained largely unruffled by the Bank of England’s decision to slow down QE, will be looking to UK GDP and Scottish elections results for direction.

Inflation and retail sales to be eyed in America

US data suggests it’s only a matter of time before the Fed finds itself in a spot where it can no longer justify its colossal monthly pace of $120 billion in bond purchases. Next week’s indicators are likely to further raise question marks about the Fed’s ultra-dovish stance. The consumer price index is out on Wednesday and expectations are that the 12-month rate jumped by one percentage point to 3.6% in April. The increase in the core rate is anticipated to have been more moderate, from 1.6% to 2.6%.


China has just announced it is suspending an economic dialogue to deepen ties with Australia in retaliation to Canberra’s decision to ban Huawei from Australia’s 5G network and to call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus. After a knee-jerk dip, the aussie bounced back from the headlines but any follow-up measures from Beijing could have a bigger impact.

In China, another jump in the producer price index in April could fuel fears of higher inflation on Tuesday and in New Zealand, electronic card retail sales for April will be watched on Wednesday for a further rebound in consumption after a sluggish start so far to 2021.

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