Week Ahead – More inflation data on the way as rate cut bets thrown into disarray
XM Group | Apr 12, 2024 08:29AM ET
- CPI numbers due in the UK, Japan, Canada and New Zealand
- China to also come into the spotlight as Q1 GDP eyed
- US retail sales to kickstart the week as earnings season gets underway
CPI figures to headline UK data flurry
After yet another hot CPI report in the United States, inflation data will remain at the forefront of the upcoming week’s releases, including in the United Kingdom. But first up on the UK agenda will be the February employment report on Tuesday.
Employment declined in the three months to January, pushing up the jobless rate to 3.9%. The UK labour market has slowed down substantially over the past year amid a slight contraction in GDP. The economy appears to be rebounding but jobs growth could remain weak for some time yet. From a wage inflation perspective, a cooling labour market can only be good news.
Retail sales are forecast to have risen by 0.3% m/m in March, slowing from the prior 0.6% rate. Other indicators to watch out of the US are the Empire State Manufacturing index, also on Monday, building permits and housing starts along with industrial production on Tuesday, to be followed by the Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales on Thursday.
With markets still reeling from the setback to early rate cut hopes, the dollar will likely hold firm. But shares on Wall Street stand a chance of staging a rebound if the Q1 earnings season gets off to a strong start. The spotlight next week will fall on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), which announces its results on Thursday.
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