Week Ahead: Fed, ECB, and BoE Rate Decisions on the Menu

 | Jan 27, 2023 06:55AM ET

A busy week lies ahead, featuring several central bank decisions and a stream of data releases. The Fed is set to raise rates at a slower pace as inflation has started to cool down, putting the emphasis on Powell’s commentary. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests the ECB and BoE will roll out bigger rate increases than the Fed, before the week concludes with the latest US employment report.

Dollar awaits Fed update

It’s been a difficult few months for the US dollar. The world’s reserve currency lost a lot of ground as a persistent slowdown in inflation supported the notion that the Fed is about to end its tightening cycle. A winter ‘heat wave’ in Europe also played a role, by diminishing fears around the energy crisis and a harsh recession, boosting the euro.

Another problem for the dollar is that the impact of the Fed’s quantitative tightening program has been negated by the US Treasury lately. Faced with another debt ceiling standoff, the Treasury has been using its cash buffer at the Fed, essentially injecting liquidity back into the markets. This dynamic enabled the rally in ‘meme stocks’ and other risky assets, but it is negative for the dollar.

In Canada, the jobs report for January will be released on Friday, alongside the US data.

Finally, the corporate earnings season will kick into top gear next week with tech juggernauts like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta, and many other household names releasing their quarterly results.

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