Wednesday Uncertain
The Night Owl Trader | Dec 17, 2014 01:11AM ET
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- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 1985.92. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Holy Molly - I think "uncertain" was absolutely the right call for Tuesday after a triple digit roller coaster ride both up and down. But in the end, the selling just continued. Will Santa Claus come to the rescue? It's getting to be about time to ask that. Maybe the charts have the answer (or maybe not).
The Technicals
The Dow: The Dow just continued its sell-off Tuesday down another 112 points, this time on a big inverted hammer. But reversal candles are meaningless lately so what else have we got? Well there's RSI which at 6.21 is now extremely oversold. And the stochastics %K line is 2.54 - doesn't get much lower than that. But also the 200 day MA is now moving into view at 16,861. This whole pattern is now looking a lot like early October and that didn't end til we'd broken under the 200 MA with a couple of big dojis. So for now we are continuing to ride the lower BB down locked in a steep descending RTC. No bullish signs here.
The VIX: The VIX is looking even more like October than the Dow with a big 15% gap up a long-legged doji star on Tuesday. Back in October (10/15 to be exact) that marked the beginning of the end. The next day I saw a big blow-off top and then down we went. And interestingly, oil had begun a steep leg lower at exactly the same time, just like now. We actually have a completed bearish stochastic crossover in the VIX and VVIX already peaked two days ago.. I know this market has really gone off the rails but I still have to think that the VIX is going lower on Wednesday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:43 AM EST with ES up 0.28%. ES had yet another lousy day Tuesday, ho hum, and seems to be trying to rally overnight, just like last night and we all know how that ended. I can't rely on overnight moves anymore the way I used to. But RSI appears to have bottomed and is extremely oversold and the OBV (On Balance Volume) took a turn higher. So there might be good news here but with the VIX pushing 24 we need some real confirmation before calling a rally.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1996.92 to 1985.92. And we once again remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.
Dollar index: Interestingly, the dollar took a big gap down, off 0.43% on Tuesday breaking support at 59.86. hitting oversold and just north of its next support at 59.40. Does this mean a move higher? Not in this Kafkaesque market. Who knows.
Euro: The euro meanwhile continued its recent rally to end at 1.2495 on an inverted hammer that just touched its upper BB and hit overbought. It still might be able to push higher from here, but the Euro is looking a bit tired to me right now.
Transportation: The Trans just laughed at Monday's doji and resumed their march low, down 1.32% a move I just do not understand. You'd think lower oil prices would help this sector. But anyway down we go with no bottom in sight despite the extremely oversold indicators.
Get The News You Want
Well once again we're seeing a lot of good reversal signs, especially from the VIX. I'll note too that the Morningstar Market Fair Value index has now gone below 1 to 0.99. And the SPC Hi-Lo indicator has now dropped to a very low reading of- 15.22. The last time we were around these levels was in mid-October and that marked the end of the early October slide. And we also had falling oil back then too. And a VIX above 25.
So what I'm thinking is that Wednesday will be a blow-off top in the VIX and then the market will begin to move higher, perhaps on a hammer. That would time nicely for Santa Claus and his rally - assuming he bothers to show up this year. But then we've still got that pesky oil problem so once again I'm calling Wednesday uncertain until things calm down a bit.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account now stands at $110,500 after ten trades in 2014, starting with $100,000. We are now 7 for 10 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 4 short, and one push. Tonight we stand aside.
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