Weak Fundamentals And Negative Sentiment Contribute To Yen Weakness
Sober Look | Nov 04, 2012 03:28AM ET
The yen continues to be driven lower by Japan's fundamentals. And unlike in previous periods, the yen has often declined recently even when the S&P500 was lower. JPY is losing its status of a safe haven currency (NASDAQ : The net amount of investor cash betting the yen would fall more than doubled in the past week, government data showed Friday.
As of October 30, investors had increased their net short yen position to $5.8 billion, the largest short yen position since May 8. The previous week investors held a net $2.8 billion short yen position, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Here is the latest from the CFTC.
The GS JPY Sentiment Index has turned lower as well based on the changes in net positions.
Goldman: After switching to net short JPY positioning last week, JPY net speculative positioning continued to move further into short territory in this week's COT report. Net positioning now stands at -$5.8 bn, with most of the change coming from an increase of speculative short positioning in the currency. Our JPY Sentiment Index fell by another 14.8 points on the week, and is now at 24.0, the lowest reading of all eight currencies covered in the report.
Of course at some point one would need to put on a contrarian hat and ask the question if the yen is oversold. For now, however, taking a contrarian view on JPY may be premature.
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