Was Yesterday’s “V” Rally A Buy Signal?
Sunshine Profits | Jan 25, 2022 09:57AM ET
The S&P 500 index traded 4% lower yesterday before closing 0.3% higher. So was it an upward reversal or just another temporary bottom? The broad stock market index accelerated its sell-off on Monday, as it reached the new local low of 4,222.62. The market was 596 points or 12.4% below the Jan. 4 record high of 4,818.62. Investors reacted to further Russia-Ukraine tensions. We are also waiting for a series of quarterly earnings releases, tomorrow’s FOMC Statement release, and Thursday’s important U.S. Advance GDP release. Overall, we had a big increase in volatility yesterday
Late December – early January consolidation along the 4,800 level was a topping pattern, and the index retraced all of its December’s record-breaking advance. This morning it is expected to open 1.6% lower, and we may see more short-term volatility. Will it reach yesterday’s low again? Probably not – we’ll likely see a consolidation.
The nearest significant is now at 4,420-4,450, marked by yesterday’s daily high, among others. On the other hand, the support level is at 4,300-4,350. The support level is also at 4,220-4,250. The S&P 500 remains below a steep short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) will release its quarterly earnings today after the session’s close. It’s an important stock, as it weighs 6.0%, just after Apple’s 6.7%. So, the S&P 500 traders will be watching that release very closely. Microsoft accelerated its sell-off yesterday and it fell to the local low of $276.05. It was 21% below the Nov. 22 record high of $349.67. The stock remains below the downward trend line, but we can see some clear short-term oversold conditions.
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Let’s take a look at Microsoft’s monthly chart. The stock broke below its multi-year hyperbolic run marked by the thick blue curve. The chart is logarithmic, and we can see an enormous rally that took place since 2013. The breakdown may lead to a change in trend or some medium- or long-term consolidation. It looks like a multi-year bull run is over.
The S&P 500 Futures contract accelerated its downtrend yesterday, as it fell close to the 4,200 level. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far, however there are some downtrend exhaustion signals.
The S&P 500 index accelerated its sell-off yesterday and at some point it was 4% lower! But the market rebounded sharply following a “V” pattern reversal and it closed 0.3% higher.
The coming quarterly earnings releases (MSFT on Tuesday, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Wednesday and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) on Thursday, among others) remain a bullish factor for stocks, but there is still a lot of uncertainty concerning Russia-Ukraine tensions. Investors are also waiting for tomorrow’s Fed release.
Here’s the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 is expected to move lower again; we may see a consolidation.
- Opening a speculative long position is justified from the risk/reward perspective.
- We are expecting a 5% upward correction from the current levels.
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