Volatility And The Falling Euro
Anna Coulling | Aug 27, 2015 06:57AM ET
So far in today's forex trading session it’s been a case of selling the EUR/USD and buying the commodity dollars, with a strong move lower also in the EUR/JPY, although this bearish sentiment towards the euro has not been as strong in eurodollar.
What is particularly interesting in the euro pairs is the extent to which today’s moves are in the process of reversing Monday’s bullish volatility candles on the daily chart. As traders, volatility can be our greatest friend or deadliest enemy, and Monday’s extreme market reaction—which resulted in price ranges well outside the ATR for the euro pairs—is a perfect example of how we can use this event to our advantage.
Of the pairs in our euro matrix, only the EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP and EUR/NZD are still trading within the range of Monday’s candle, with the remaining three pairs, namely the EUR/JPY, EUR/CAD and EUR/USD trading at Monday’s lows. The priority for these latter pairs is to see whether Monday’s reversal can be sustained. For the pairs still trading within Monday’s volatility candle there is still some way to go and much will depend on whether the current bearish sentiment towards the euro is maintained and continues into September.
What has also been a feature in euro trading this morning has been the relatively muted move to the downside in the eurodollar, which comes as no great surprise given the presence of the VPOC on the daily chart, which of itself would help to contain any price move.
For the eurodollar, it will be the US session which will determine whether this morning’s selling will continue, particularly as we have two key items of fundamental news for the USD, namely the unemployment claims and the q/q preliminary GDP number. In addition, we have the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium which too should add its own influence to the price action.
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