Vehicle Miles Driven: Another Population-Adjusted Low
Doug Short | Mar 23, 2014 02:03AM ET
The Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on see report ). However, if we factor in population growth, the civilian population-adjusted data (age 16-and-over) is at a new post-Financial Crisis low and total population-adjusted data are only fractionally above its low set in June of last year.
Here is a chart that illustrates this data series from its inception in 1970. I'm plotting the "Moving 12-Month Total on ALL Roads," as the DOT terms it. See Figure 1 in the PDF report, which charts the data from 1989. My start date is 1971 because I'm incorporating all the available data from earlier DOT spreadsheets.
Clearly, when we adjust for population growth, the Miles-Driven metric takes on a much darker look. The nominal 39-month dip that began in May 1979 grows to 61 months, slightly more than five years. The trough was a 6% decline from the previous peak.
The population-adjusted all-time high dates from June 2005. That's 102 months — eight-and-a-half years ago. The latest data is 9.03% below the 2005 peak, a new post-Financial Crisis low. Our adjusted miles driven based on the 16-and-older age cohort is about where we were as a nation in January of 1995.
Here is a closer look at the series since 2000. We can see that the decline leveled off in 2010, rolled over in 2011, leveled off in the first half of 2012 and then rolled over again.
In fact, I think there's a good case for using the Census Bureau's mid-month estimates of total population (POPTHM ) rather than civilians age 16 and over for the population adjustment. The reason is that a portion of total miles driven is specifically to support children's needs (day care, schools, children's activities, etc.) and the needs of elders who might have licenses but no longer drive. Ultimately the division of miles driven by either population group (CNP16OV or POPTHM), while not a perfect match with drivers, is a consistent and relevant metric for evaluating economic growth.
Here is the same population-adjusted chart, this time with the total population for the adjustment. In the total-population adjusted version the latest data point of -7.41, fractionally above the June 2013 -7.52% post-recession low.
The Driving Boom — a six decade-long period of steady increases in per-capita driving in the United States — is over. 
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Americans drive fewer total miles today than we did eight years ago, and fewer per person than we did at the end of Bill Clinton's first term. The unique combination of conditions that fueled the Driving Boom—from cheap gas prices to the rapid expansion of the workforce during the Baby Boom generation — no longer exists. Meanwhile, a new generation — the Millennials — is demanding a new American Dream less dependent on driving. |
See also my report on Driving Declines in America's Cities , which highlights research in a recent report by U.S.PIRG Education Fund.
The DOT "miles driven" metric is also interesting to study in the context of gasoline volume sales, which I also update monthly:
- Gasoline Volume Sales, Demographics and our Changing Culture
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