USD/JPY Rebounds: Time to Go Long?
Jason Sen | Nov 23, 2023 02:29AM ET
Looking back, my EUR/USD buy levels were a bit confusing yesterday with the second buy level just 10 pips below the stop of the first level.
However, the message was clear so I hope you did manage to get long and hold it for the bounce!
The USD/JPY bounce (triggered by Tuesday's unexpectedly bullish hammer candle) has run further than expected and it was the 50-day moving average that held it in the end. I am sticking with my bearish short-term outlook for now. If you are not short I would suggest that a break below 148.90 is a sell signal for today.
Or we have strong resistance at 150.00/150.20.
AUD/USD hit 6520 yesterday, at the upper end of my buy level. I have been looking to buy the pair all week, so one way or another I hope you found a way to get into a long there after my 2 buy trades, a nice bounce to 6557 this morning.
The GBP/USD long at 1.2460/40 was a beauty, with a low for the day at 1.2446 and a bounce to the first target of 1.2500, as we look for 1.2550 today hopefully.
The NZD/USD long at 6020/10 was not so good with a stop below 6000 unfortunately, we ran as far as 5994, but if you did manage to hold the long, we have hit the 1st target of 6040 and can look for 6080 today.
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The EUR/CAD short at 1.4960/80 worked perfectly on the collapse from 1.4986 to the 1st target of 1.4920. A break below 1.4890 today can target 1.4850.
However, the NZD/CAD long at 8270/50 also had a stop that was a little too tight and we overran 8240 to hit 8233 again if you happen to have managed to hold the long we have recovered above 8270 as I write so this is a good chance of seeing a decent profit later today (I hope).
I think it has been a decent week already in difficult conditions ahead of the big US holiday weekend so I am not going to push my luck. I have no new ideas for today anyway because we are not seeing much movement.
I am more concerned about keeping the profit and starting next week feeling confident than worrying about making a few more pips and risking this week's profit. I hope you agree.
You need to know when not to trade!!!
h2 Key Points for Traders This Morning:/h2 h2 Oil Prices:/h2- Fell 1% in early Thursday trading.
- OPEC+ postponed a ministerial meeting, raising concerns of potentially smaller output cuts.
- Brent futures fell 1% to $81.15 a barrel.
- WTI crude dipped 0.9% to $76.40.
- Trade is expected to remain muted due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
- OPEC+ delayed the ministerial meeting to Nov. 30.
- Difficulty in reaching an agreement on output levels.
- Linked to African countries, easing investor concerns.
- Jumped by 8.7 million barrels, exceeding the expected 1.16 million build.
- Remained unchanged at 500 in the week to Nov. 22.
Around 3% of crude oil production (61,165 barrels daily) shut in due to an underwater pipeline leak.
h2 U.S. Stocks and Dollar:/h2- U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday.
- Dollar bounced back from a 2-1/2-month low.
- Economic data suggested the labor market is not cooling as quickly as expected.
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported revenue above expectations.
- Shares dropped 2.5% due to a downbeat China sales outlook.
- Dow Jones rose 0.53% to 35,273.03.
- S&P 500 gained 0.41% to 4,556.62.
- Nasdaq Composite added 0.46% to 14,265.86.
- Hit a two-month high.
- The greenback rebounded from a 2-1/2 month low.
- Dollar Index rose 0.31%.
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.0887.
- Japanese yen weakened 0.80% to 149.60 per dollar.
- Sterling down 0.36% to $1.2492.
- Benchmark yields wobbled after robust jobless claims data.
- 10-year yield at 4.41%.
- 30-year yield at 4.5446%.
- Dipped below $2,000 per ounce.
- Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $1,989.79 an ounce.
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