USD/JPY: How Low Can The Pair Go?
FxPro Financial Services Ltd | Jul 29, 2022 06:23AM ET
The Japanese yen has gained 3.4% against the dollar in less than 48 hours, recovering to 132.7 from a month and a half ago. Before that, from early March to mid-July, USD/JPY soared by more than 20% on diverging monetary policy from the Fed and BoJ.
However, the markets have recently started to speculate that the Fed will soon return to a rate cut in a year. Against this background, the yields of United States 10-Year are falling, narrowing the spread between them and the same Japanese securities. However, we must note that the currency market was one month late with its reaction, changing the USD/JPY trend one month after the reversal in U.S. 10-year bonds.
The sell-off in USD/JPY intensified after the Fed meeting, although the trend in other currency pairs is not as evident. Most likely, USD/JPY has moved into the correction phase of the last movement and has not yet exhausted its downside potential.
The first line of defense of the uptrend in the form of the 50-day moving average has an onslaught on Friday morning. Now the focus for the short-term traders is the pair's ability to hold on to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement line from the March-July rally, which passes at 133 - near the current price.
However, it would not be surprising if the correction extends to 130, the more significant 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line of that rally and the psychologically important round number, where the April-May rally had already stopped for a breather.
Suppose the August lull in the currency market turns into a correction. In that case, the USD/JPY might well slide to 125, the next major round level, the area of cyclical peaks for most of the last 20 years, and 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement of the pair's momentum from the beginning of 2021.
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