Canadian Dollar Ticks Lower, US Consumer Confidence Next

 | Nov 10, 2017 07:01AM ET

The Canadian dollar has inched lower in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2667, down 0.10% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian events on the schedule. In the US, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to remain at high levels, with an estimate of 100.8 points.

Canadian housing numbers jumped on Wednesday, helping the Canadian dollar hold its own against the greenback. Housing Starts improved to 223 thousand, well above the forecast of 211 thousand. This matched the highest reading since March. There was more good news from Building Permits, which soared 3.8%, crushing the estimate of 0.7%. This followed two sharp declines. On the inflation front, the New Housing Price Index edged higher to 0.2%, matching the estimate.

After staying on the sidelines in October, the Bank of Canada has left the markets guessing regarding a December rate hike. Earlier this week, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz downplayed concerns about low inflation levels, as the inflation target of 2 percent remains elusive. The BoC will have to keep a close eye on developments south of the border. The Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise rates in December, and if the BoC does not match the hike, the Canadian dollar will likely weaken against the greenback. Another headache for the BoC is the threat from the US administration to pull out of the NAFTA agreement, which is a cornerstone of Canada’s economy. On his Asian trip, US President Trump has reiterated that he favors bilateral trade agreements, rather than multilateral arrangements. If Trump applies this stance to relations with Canada and Mexico, NAFTA could be in trouble.

h3 USD/CAD Fundamentals /h3

Friday (November 10)

  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 100.8
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, November 10, 2017