USD/CAD: Canadian Dollar Rally Fizzles, Manufacturing Production Next

 | Mar 15, 2019 08:32AM ET

The Canadian dollar is unchanged in the Friday session, after slight losses on Thursday. Early in the North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3332, down 0.02% on the day. In the U.S., there are two key events. The Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected to climb to 10.1, while UoM Consumer Sentiment is projected to remain at 95.5 points. Canada releases manufacturing sales, which has rolled off three straight declines. The markets are expecting a better January, with an estimate of 0.4%.

The Bank of Canada has eased up on rate policy in 2019. The BoC raised rates five times between July 2017 and October 2018, but has since stayed on the sidelines. With the Canadian economy in a slowdown, the bank could stay on the sidelines until the second half of 2019. Was the sharp jump in rates too much for the economy to handle? One sore spot is the housing sector, which has declined for five straight months, as higher rates have made mortgages more expensive and reduced home purchases. If the economy does not rebound, policymakers will have to consider a rate cut, which could stimulate economic activity but would be bearish for the Canadian dollar.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Friday (March 15)

  • 8:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 10.1
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.5
  • 10:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 7.27M

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Friday, March 15, 2019