USD Weaker On Lower Yields
| Aug 28, 2014 03:45AM ET
Market Brief
FX markets were subdued in the Asian session as USD lost some ground on further profit taking. Regional equity indices were in the red as the Nikkei fell -0.48%, the Hang Seng dropped -0.28% and Shanghai was slightly lower at -0.5% (at the time of writing). In FX, USDJPY continued to fall, slipping to 103.68 weakness in US treasury yields while EURUSD rose to 1.3218 on a Reuters report stating the ECB was doubtful to ease at next weeks policy meeting, unless Friday’s inflation data was meaningfully softer then consensus. EURUSD traders are eyeing the gap open from Friday-Monday (1.3242 close), which could get filled should inflation data come better than expected (lower should data come in lower then forecasts). AUDUSD climbed to 0.9372 from 0.9332 as stronger CAPEX data cleared stops above 0.9350 resistance. Most Asia EM traded higher verse the USD. USDKRW was sold to 1013.30 were official support was rumored to have stepped in. USDINR fell to 60.3600 as yields rose 2bp. Yet the broader trend of EM bonds and currecnies being in demand looks to continue. We are highly constructive on EM Asia currecneis in particular.
Asian Session
In the Asian session, report showed that China’s industrial profits grew 13.5% y/y in July, decelerating from its prior increase of 17.9% in June. Australia’s private capital expenditure jumped 1.1% q/q in Q2 2014 significantly better than expectations of a 0.9% fall. The CAPEX underlying spending results illustrates a more balanced investment approached then just heavy allocation toward mining. South Korea’s Balance of Payment current account surplus slipped marginally to $7908.8mn in July from $7919.7mn in June.
On the docket
In the European session, Spanish GDP Q2 final came in as expected at 0.5% q/q and 1.2% y/y. While German CPI fell to 0.0% from 0.4%. The weaker inflation reads will support the pro-QE team demand to launch aggressive easing next week. We still suspect that weak European data will increase debate for ECB action and keep EUR soft. However, we are still in the camp that doesn’t anticipate the ECB will pull the trigger at next week’s meeting. In the UK, CBI reported sales for August expect to come in at 27, stronger then the July print of 21. And in Sweden, retail sales growth is expected at 4.3% y/y in July verse 3.3% y/y in June.
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Currency Tech
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3290
R 1: 1.3250
CURRENT: 1.3213
S 1: 1.3152
S 2: 1.3136
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6656
R 1: 1.6610
CURRENT: 1.6594
S 1: 1.6531
S 2: 1.6506
USDJPY
R 2: 104.41
R 1: 104.17
CURRENT: 103.79
S 1: 103.69
S 2: 103.50
USDCHF
R 2: 0.9196
R 1: 0.9186
CURRENT: 0.9132
S 1: 0.9104
S 2: 0.9060
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