USD On Defensive, Break Levels Nigh
Saxo Bank | Aug 20, 2015 11:18AM ET
The USD was generally on the defensive, though the only notable moves were in EUR/USD and USD/CHF in a very risk off market that saw the euro and CHF rallying broadly. The tight ranges need to fall in the USD/commodity currency pairs and in USD/JPY to say that the USD is falling apart here.
Sterling was even weaker than the USD as the two currencies are clearly correlated in terms of sensitivity to risk appetite and the market themes of the moment.
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EUR/USD
The eurodollar is clearly rallying in sympathy with the risk-off environment, but reports in late European hours that Greek prime minister Tsipras will resign and call for elections is providing an interesting diversion. The last local line in the sand for EUR/USD is the 1.1215 area highs, which could open up for a go at the 200-day moving average or top of range toward 1.1465 if broken.
Source: Saxo Bank.
USD/CHF
With EUR/CHF rallying together with EUR/USD today, the impact on USD/CHF from more USD weakness has been a bit muted. But the pair took out the important 0.9700/0.9680 area, leaving only the 0.9500/50 old pivot zone as the key structural support for keeping the upside case intact.
Source: Saxo Bank
AUD/USD
Typical of many of the USD pairs, AUD/USD is locked in a tight range and unable to escape – meaning bulls and bears will both have to remain patient as we await either a 0.7250 or 0.7450 test for the next action of interest. The case is similar for USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/USD as well.
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Source: Saxo Bank
XAU/USD (spot gold)
Gold toyed with the 1150 area, which is the last arguable resistance line and begins to make the case for a reversal of the bear trend if the price action rallies and stays above this level. It will be interesting from here to see the degree to which gold is reliant on pressure on risky assets to maintain a bid tone.
Source: Saxo Bank
– Edited by Clare MacCarthy
John J Hardy is head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank
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