Littlefish FX | Nov 20, 2014 05:26AM ET
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY:
0900GMT EUR Flash Services PMI exp 52.3 v 52.4
0900GMT EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI exp 50.9 v 50.7
1330GMT USD Core CPI m/m exp 0.2% v 0.1%
1330GMT USD CPI m/m exp -0.1% v 0.1%
1330GMT USD Unemployment Claims exp 286K v 290K
1445GMT USD Flash Manufacturing PMI exp 56.2 v 56.2
1500GMT USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index exp 18.9 v 20.7
1500GMT USD Existing Home Sales exp 5.16M v 5.17M
OVERNIGHT:
All the focus on USDJPY this morning as it continues to make a series of new highs. Despite initial headlines from FOMC minutes being interpreted as somewhat doveish, the pair eventually managed to trigger option barriers through 118.
While the minutes ultimately did not yield anything particularly new, there were three points of interest: 1) The discussion related to inflation and inflation expectations was more doveish than suggested in the statement; 2) The section on guidance indicated that there were a wide range of views regarding what to do about the “considerable time” phrase – remove or neutralise. 3) Discussion related to the RRP program – including a new reference to the possible introduction of bank collateral accounts.
Post event, the Initial USD bearish price action was likely more a reflection on positioning and USD quickly went bid again all the way to a 118.71 high. It is now difficult to identify significant resistance levels on the charts so I think attention will naturally lie with big figure at 119 and 120 and projected trendline resistance at 1.22.
Elsewhere, from China we got HSBC PMI at exactly 50, the level that divides expansion and contraction, exp 50.2. Add to that falling Iron ore prices and it is unsurprising that AUD is back on a 0.85 handle.
OVERNIGHT PRICE ACTION:
EUR: Rejection candle at trendline resistance
GBP: Trading below descending trendline but lacking momentum
JPY: Breaks ascending trendline, new year to date highs
CAD: Supported near trendline support
AUD: Rejected from trendline resistance
KEY TRADES:
FX Pair | Short Term | Position/Date | Entry Level | Target | Stop | Comments |
EURUSD | Bullish | Buy / 19 Nov | 1.2590 | Open | 1.2440 | |
GBPUSD | Bearish | Await new signal | ||||
USDJPY | Bullish | Await new signal | ||||
USDCAD | Bullish | Buy / 19 Nov | 1.1350 | Open | 1.12 | |
AUDUSD | Bearish | Sell / 17Nov | 8690 | Open | .8690 | Risk Free |
ANALYSIS:
EURUSD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
GBPUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
USDJPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
USDCAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
AUDUSD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
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