USD/JPY: short-term trend in doubt

 | Sep 23, 2013 07:53AM ET

The USD/JPY pair has risen sharply, wrong-footing many investors who had been expecting more down-side. Thursday's unexpected surge - in particular above the 99.37 level - upset market expectations and leaves the direction of the short-term trend in doubt. A break above the 99.66 highs could signal more upside and would be quite bullish, leading perhaps to a move up to the underside of the major trend-line at 100.15 – and seems the slightly more likely possibility given the slight medium-term up-trend bias. There is no sign of a bullish switch yet, however, and if the pair continues drifting lower it will soon encounter substantial support at 98.70, where the 50% fibonacci level and the 50-day MA cluster together and both provide a major level of support.