USD/JPY: moving sideways within triangle

 | Jan 26, 2015 08:00AM ET

The pair is forming a triangle within which it is currently rising, in a wave D.

It has paused whilst forming wave D and started to move sideways above long-term support at 117.57 and just below the 50-day MA at 118.67 – forming a 110 point range.

Further upside is capped in the short-term by the 50-day and the upper border of the triangle.

Eventually, however, the long-term up-trend will probably resume and a break above 120.73 would confirm a breakout from the pattern, with the next target at the 121.82 highs – although using the triangle height to measure, could eventually reach 124.00, the 61.8% fib projection higher.

In the short-term, more downside is possible, if there is a break below the range lows, with a move under 116.90 leading to a probable move down to a target at 116.10.