USD/JPY: Dollar Rises To 113, Markets Eye OPEC Meeting
MarketPulse | Nov 30, 2016 07:01AM ET
USD/JPY continues to rally on Wednesday, as the pair has punched above the 113 line. On the release front, Japan will release Capital Spending and Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will release ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, with the markets predicting an improvement of 161 thousand. As well, OPEC members will meet in Vienna, hoping to reach an agreement to cap oil production. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Japanese consumers remains in a sour mood, as consumer spending indicators continue to decline. Household Spending declined 0.4%, while Retail Sales dipped 0.1%. Although these readings were better than the forecasts, the yen responded with losses of 1.1%. Meanwhile, the economy continues to grapple with deflation. Tokyo Core CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, which came in at -0.4% in the November report, has failed to post a gain in 2016. The BoJ has failed to kick-start inflation or boost growth, despite radical easing measures such as negative interest rates. Japanese policymakers have indicated that the government may resort to fiscal stimulus in order to increase economic growth, given the inability of the BoJ to improve the economy.
US indicators impressed on Tuesday. Preliminary GDP sparkled in the third quarter, as the economy expanded 3.2%, above the forecast of 3.0%. The 3.2% gain was an upwards revision of Advance GDP, which came in at 2.9%. Solid consumer confidence numbers have been a critical factor in the US recovery, as an optimistic consumer is likely to go out and spend money. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 107.1 points in November, surpassing the 100-level for the third time in four months. Last week, UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 93.8 points, its highest level since May. Donald Trump’s surprise election victory has not had an adverse effect on consumer confidence, and if these rosy numbers translate into stronger consumer spending, the US dollar could continue to climb against its rivals.
US Q3 GDP Revised Upward on Consumer Spending
OPEC Deal Uncertain as Ministers Meet in Vienna
USD/JPY Fundamentals
Wednesday (November 30)
- 00:00 Japanese Housing Starts. Estimate 11.5%. Actual 13.7%
- All Day – OPEC Meetings
- 8:15 US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 161K
- 8:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%
- 8:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%
- 8:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.4%
- 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 52.1
- 10:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 0.3%
- 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M
- 11:45 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speech
- 14:00 US Beige Book
- 18:50 Japanese Capital Spending. Estimate -0.4%
- 19:30 Japanese Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.1
- 22:45 Japanese 10-year Bond Auction
Get The News You Want
Upcoming Key Events
Thursday (December 1)
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 252K
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.1
*All release times are EST
*Key events are in bold
USD/JPY for Wednesday, November 30, 2016
USD/JPY November 30 at 6:20 EST
Open: 112.46 High: 113.17 Low: 112.02 Close: 113.12
USD/JPY Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 110.68 | 111.45 | 112.48 | 113.86 | 114.13 | 115.45 |
- USD/JPY has posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions
- 112.48 is providing support
- There is resistance at 113.86
- Current range: 112.48 to 113.86
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 112.48, 111.45, 110.68 and 109.47
- Above: 113.86, 114.13 and 115.45
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/JPY ratio remains unchanged this week. Currently, short positions have a majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY reversing directions and moving lower.
Original post
Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.