USD/JPY Holds 103.50; Risk Up To 104.00 And 104.20

 | Aug 29, 2014 03:12AM ET

USD/JPY bounce bias

  • A probe below modest support at the 103.75/70 area, but then a bounce effort ahead of the better level at 103.50 to leave upside forces intact Friday and into early September.
  • The push early this week above 104.13, the April peak, reinforced the prior surge through the 103.09/10 resistance area and favours still further upside.
  • For Friday, the bias is up towards 104.00, maybe 104.20.
  • We still see risk into early September above 104.47 for 104.85/94 next and maybe higher to the 105.48 secular high into September.

WHAT CHANGES THIS?

  • Below 103.50 eases bull risks; through 102.13 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 101.50.