USD Gains On Indices Selloff
Ashraf Laidi | Feb 21, 2018 12:03AM ET
The USD-indices inverse relationship was bolstered yesterday as the US returned from a holiday. On Tuesday the climb in USD continued for a third day. The dollar was the top performer while CHF and CAD lagged. A full slate of data from Australia, Japan and the UK is due up next.
The dollar showed some better signs Tuesday as it climbed in a more-liquid market. EUR/USD appears to have stalled after two attempts at 1.25 and is consolidating in the 1.22-1.25 range in part due to softer (but still healthy) ZEW and eurozone consumer confidence readings.
Treasury yields continued to march higher with the entire curve hitting fresh multi-year highs. The enthusiasm was dampened slightly after a 2-year auction, but sales of 5-year and 7-year notes in the next two days could flip the script.
One particularly soft currency this month is CAD, which is now at the bottom of the YTD performance chart. December Canadian wholesale sales fell 0.5% compared to a +0.4% reading expected but retail sales and CPI numbers later this week will be the numbers to watch.
In the immediate term, the focus will first shift to AUD, which hit a six-day low Tuesday. Job vacancies, construction work and wages data is all due early in Asia-Pacific trading. The Q4 wage index is forecast to rise 2.0% and it will likely be the market driver barring another big surprise in construction data. There are currently 2 AUD trades in the Premium Insights, both at break-even.
The focus then moves to Japan with the Nikkei PMI at 0030 GMT and the all-industry activity index at 0430 GMT. Both are unlikely to be market movers and China remains on holiday.
The big headlines in the day ahead will be from the UK jobs/wages report due at 0930 GMT. The path of UK economy at the moment remains opaque so all the numbers will be watched closely for any sign of Brexit strain or resilience. Wages numbers will be especially important with average weekly earnings forecast to rise 2.5% y/y. The January FOMC minutes follow in Wednesday evening.
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